Amid Signs of Hope, Liberia's Future Remains Uncertain

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa — A week-old peace accord between Liberia's warring factions and the presence of regional peacekeepers have helped end much of the recent fighting that brought the West African nation to its knees. Markets have reopened in the capital, Monrovia, children now play in the streets, and there is laughter again.

But prospects of a brighter future for the country, tortured by 14 years of conflict that has claimed about 150,000 lives, still hang in the balance.

Reports of continued fighting in several areas outside Monrovia, the reluctance of rebel leaders to accept a recently appointed interim leader and the seeming unwillingness by the United States to stay engaged threaten to hamper Liberia's ability to stand again.

Local and foreign Africa specialists cautioned that despite the appearance of a return to some semblance of normality -- at least in the capital -- the general situation in Liberia was still so volatile that one spark could reignite the flames.

"Regretfully, Liberia is still not out of the woods," said Emira Woods, co-director of Foreign Policy in Focus at the Institute for Policy Studies, a Washington-based think tank. "There needs to be peacekeepers firmly situated on the ground, and they need to increase their numbers and expand their scope."

A 3-week-old West African peacekeeping force, currently numbering 1,500, is expected to grow to 3,250 and be taken over by a United Nations mission within a few months. The U.S. had about 200 Marines in Liberia until Sunday, when 150 of them were sent back to their warships off the country's coast, 11 days after coming ashore.

Commanding officers said the American troops would be better positioned to respond to any skirmishes in the country if they remained aboard ship. But the move has left many residents of the capital feeling abandoned.

"Everybody is a little bit concerned," said Kevin Savage, emergency programs coordinator for the international aid agency World Vision. He spoke by phone from Monrovia. "The attitude of some people is that [the Marines'] presence on the ground is a little more assuring than them being on the ships."

Some Africa analysts said the move underscored the disinclination of the U.S. to play a long-term role in helping to sustain peace in Liberia -- a nation founded by freed American slaves in the 19th century -- and might work to embolden those determined to continue to fight.


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