If Latinos can be rallied to the polls Oct. 7, their votes may prove decisive. But they won't turn out because they want to help Gov. Gray Davis keep his job. They will vote because they hope to elect California's first Latino governor in more than a century.
Indeed, the key to Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante's electoral strategy -- high Latino turnout -- just may put the final nail in Davis' coffin, with Latinos voting to remove a sitting governor who has failed them and to replace him with one of their own.
But if it is to happen, Latino voters must first be persuaded to vote. In general, Latinos in California participate at lower rates in elections than their Anglo counterparts; consider the 2002 gubernatorial race, in which they represented just 10% of those voting despite constituting 15% of registered voters.
Many analysts believe that having Bustamante on the ballot will generate higher levels of interest among Latinos, comparable to the Los Angeles mayoral race in 2001 in which Antonio Villaraigosa drew a record number of Latinos to the polls.
But Bustamante's presence alone may not be enough. Exceptional levels of Latino turnout in California and elsewhere are typically linked to successful grass-roots mobilizing efforts. As researchers from the University of Texas have demonstrated, Latino voters turn out at much higher than normal rates when they are contacted by Latino organizations but are no more likely to vote when contacted by political parties or other non-Latino groups.
Luckily for Bustamante, Latino organizations like the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project seem committed to launching an aggressive mobilization campaign in this election. With a Latino candidate for governor and the racially charged Proposition 54 on the ballot, other Latino community groups will probably be out in force as well, working to bring voters to the polls.
For Bustamante to take advantage of this and win the governorship, he needs to craft a message that will resonate with Latino constituents. He needs to remind them that Davis has failed the Latino community on many policy fronts such as social services, crime and immigration. Bustamante's current strategy -- advising people to vote against the recall in question one but vote for him on question two -- is not the right one. It is too complicated for all voters and doesn't offer Latinos enough reason to go to the polls.
