The Senate Super Bowl of '06: Rudy vs. Hillary

The word around New York is that our former mayor, Rudy Giuliani, has decided to challenge Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton when she seeks reelection in 2006 -- a matchup we almost saw in 2002 before he withdrew for personal reasons. Giuliani won't confirm or deny it (as recently as Friday he told radio host Don Imus he hadn't made up his mind), but two well-placed GOP insiders say it's "basically a done deal."

This would be the Super Bowl of Senate races and a dramatic "wild card" lead-in to the 2008 presidential election. Only one of the principals could advance to the next level.

For Giuliani, challenging Clinton is a necessary step if he hopes to be a national GOP player. He could, if he chose, run for governor in 2006, but that wouldn't do him much good on the national stage. He would still be a pro-gay, pro-choice "Rockefeller Republican."

But Senator Giuliani would be a different matter. He would have slain the dragon, and slaying the dragon would bestow upon him exalted status. Major points of difference with the GOP's core constituencies -- like the sanctity of life (abortion) and the evolution of mankind (stem cell research) -- would become much less disqualifying.

Red State Republicans -- those from the GOP stronghold states -- could learn to love Rudy in a New York minute if he beat Hillary.

And make no mistake about it, Giuliani wants them to love him. He wants to play on the national GOP stage. His leadership in the city after the World Trade Center massacre made him a national hero, and he has leveraged that status skillfully these last two years. He has published a bestselling book, established a lucrative consulting practice, built a strong political bridge to the Bush administration and emerged as a huge GOP campaign asset. Indeed, after President Bush, Giuliani was widely seen as the most productive Republican campaigner of the 2002 midterm election cycle.

Like most political observers, Giuliani assumes that President Bush will be reelected in 2004, and he intends to campaign hard on his behalf and on behalf of the GOP's efforts to gain more seats in Congress. This will take him down South, a lot, where five Democratic Senate seats are up for grabs because of retirements.