In a discouraging blow to smog cleanup across the Los Angeles region, air quality officials said Wednesday that they have vastly underestimated smog-forming emissions from a variety of sources and fear they will not be able to eliminate them in time to avoid penalties under the Clean Air Act.
California air quality officials have long offered assurances that they are on track to achieve healthful air by the close of the decade, as mandated by Congress. Air pollution has indeed been in retreat. Yet it appears that progress against ozone and haze, the two most abundant pollutants, is not as far along as once thought and will become more difficult.
For the first time since the region's clean air program was revamped in the late 1980s, air quality officials are signaling that it could take longer than 2010 to reduce ozone to levels required by federal law. While pledging to redouble their efforts to cut emissions, they acknowledge they do not have all the strategies or technologies to succeed. They have, however, succeeded in cleaning up other pollutants, including carbon monoxide.
Failure to meet mandatory targets for ozone and haze could have serious repercussions. It would mean that half of California's population would suffer longer than expected from the nation's dirtiest air. The pollutants common to Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties are known to cause headaches, asthma, heart attacks and cancer.
Businesses from aerospace plants to auto makers to cosmetic producers could bear the brunt of a host of new rules as regulators play catch-up in the next few years. California could potentially face restrictions on growth and highway construction. Consumers could pay a price for cleaner cars, reformulated household products and other goods.
Reaction to the findings, which are contained in preliminary drafts of the 2003 air quality management plan released Tuesday, stunned veteran smog fighters. The plan, which is updated every few years to reflect the latest research, is the blueprint that guides clean air efforts across the region.
"It's grim. It's disheartening," said Jack Broadbent, director of air programs in California for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. "I'm not ready to give up, but we need to move as aggressively as possible. I have concern and alarm."
