Democrats Putting Davis at Risk

SACRAMENTO — By the time the snow flies in the Sierra this fall, California will have a Republican governor -- if the Democrats have anything to do with it. That's the only reasonable conclusion to draw after all prominent California Democrats took themselves out of the running to replace Gov. Gray Davis should the recall against him qualify for a fall vote, which seems probable.

We can predict who's likely to vote if the recall election is held this fall and, based on past recalls, how they are likely to vote. It's not good news for Davis.

In November 1993, 5.3 million Californians went to the polls in a special off-year election on a school voucher initiative. That number amounted to about one-third of California's registered voters; 5.3 million voters also cast ballots in the 2002 primary.

These are California's "regular voters": Call an election and they turn out. They tend to be older, white, homeowners and more conservative than the electorate as a whole. In 2002, 44% of primary voters were registered Republicans. Davis received only 33% of the total ballots cast, and one in five Democratic primary voters went against him.

If 5.3 million turned out to vote on a voucher issue in 1993, we can expect at least that many to vote on a governor's recall 10 years later. Furthermore, regular voters primarily rejected the voucher initiative, which lost by a margin of greater than 2-1, because of concern over its fiscal consequences. And if the fiscally minded is everyone who turns out to vote in a recall election, Davis cannot survive. He needs loyal Democratic voters.

In the 2002 general election, 7.7 million voters went to the polls. The 2.4 million "extra voters" exhibited the Democratic bias Davis needs to defeat the recall. Democrats had a 5% edge in the total electorate, and Davis beat his GOP opponent, Bill Simon, by 5%, although he received only 47% of all votes cast.

But the Democratic Party's decision to run no replacement option in a recall election means it will be harder to motivate this additional Democratic turnout. It's gambling that the recall will be a repeat of 2002, with only Rep. Darrell Issa or Simon as candidates. Simon and Issa are more conservative than the California electorate, so in a one-on-one election against either, Davis might survive.

There's a problem: The recall process is not static. It's not a one-on-one election. Anyone can run as a replacement for Davis, and the candidacy of either actor Arnold Schwarzenegger or former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan would shatter the Democratic strategy.