WASHINGTON — Obscurity. Electricity. Momentum. Opportunity. Disappointment.
For more than a quarter of a century, that has been the life cycle for the sort of insurgent presidential candidacy that former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has fashioned in the race for the 2004 Democratic nomination.
From Democrats Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas, Jerry Brown and Bill Bradley to Republican John McCain, candidates who have run as outsiders -- criticizing their party's direction -- have stunned the political world by generating more excitement and amassing more support than appeared possible when they entered the race, as Dean has done in recent weeks.
But since Jimmy Carter rode the post-Watergate demand for reform to the White House in 1976, every subsequent insurgent candidate has failed to win his party's nomination. Each lost to a candidate who had greater support among the party establishment.
Dean's ability to raise money quickly off the Internet provides him a critical asset unavailable to earlier outsiders, and he also may benefit because none of his rivals has emerged as the favorite of the Democratic elite.
But even with such advantages, experts say, Dean still faces many of the same challenges that have derailed previous insurgents. Those center on a primary calendar and nomination rules that benefit candidates with the most endorsements and money.
Compounding the problem for outsiders is the fact that they've often been the subject of severe mood swings in the media -- rising with the help of positive coverage only to face withering press skepticism and scrutiny once they show strength.
"For the outsider candidate, it is inevitable that ... there will be a sense of: 'Wait a minute. Who is this guy? Do we really know who he is? Do we really want to trust the party to him? And is this thing out of control?' " said Hart, now a Denver lawyer.
No previous insurgent has demonstrated as much support as early as Dean, who led the Democratic field in fund-raising over the past three months and is running strongly in the latest Iowa and New Hampshire polls.
Joe Trippi, Dean's campaign manager, said his candidate's early emergence has defied the pattern of nomination contests. Usually, he said, the establishment candidate like Walter F. Mondale or George W. Bush dominates attention in the early stages of the race, and the insurgent struggles for notice and money until Iowa and New Hampshire.
