A Blurred Vision

STANFORD — No country in the world today is as ripe for democratic regime change as Iran. Societal discontent with the conservative clerics who rule the country has been building for years and now pervades the society. This broad disaffection has produced splits within the ruling regime. Periodic outbursts of public discontent, like the student protests last month, are putting extreme pressure on the government. The regime's legitimacy is spent.

Still, the future is far from certain.

In the late 1990s, the policies of gradual political liberalization pursued by Iran's elected president, Mohammad Khatami, seemed the only viable strategy for progressives. Today, with thousands of demonstrators shouting in the streets, the Iranian people are no longer content with gradual change. They want democracy now. The clerics, who still control the army and the police, have reacted by clamping down, with new policies both at home and abroad that signal desperation. Out of this dangerous brew, some predict a velvet revolution, others civil war.

So what is the U.S. doing to help Iran find its path during this moment of both peril and opportunity? Not much.

The administration lacks a clear strategy for promoting democratic regime change in Iran, despite a strong rhetorical commitment to that goal. The absence of a clear game plan has allowed opportunists -- in both Iran and Washington -- to fill the void with their own interpretations of American policy. The result has been a dangerous confusion.

One group of Washington-based pundits and exiled Iranians wants to push the United States into increasingly hostile and direct confrontation with the Islamic regime, using coercive diplomacy and even military pressure if necessary. This group also wants to encourage demonstrators inside Iran to rise up and confront the regime as quickly and boldly as possible, even if this would prompt violence, revolution or civil war. Some members of this group -- following in the footsteps of the Iraqi exiles and U.S. policymakers who favored installing exiled banker Ahmad Chalabi as leader of Iraq -- are determined to handpick Iran's next leader. Their choice is Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of the last shah to rule in Iran.