O.C. Builders Reach Their Final Frontier
After half a century of go-go development, the final build-out of Orange County is underway, with applications in the works by the Irvine Co., Rancho Mission Viejo Co. and major oil companies for massive housing and commercial projects at the county's remnant rural edges.
"We're outta land. We don't have any dirt left," said Michelle Wolkoys, a real estate analyst with the Meyers Group in Costa Mesa.
There are plans for 36,000 to 42,000 additional homes and condominiums on about 54 square miles, according to a Times analysis -- a year's worth of housing for the job-soaked, housing-starved county if it were all built immediately.
But it won't be, many agree, because much of the land that makes up the county's unbuilt borders is not flat, easy-to-bulldoze strawberry fields and orange groves, but mountainous, tree-choked ravines, free-flowing creeks and meandering back roads. It is land that's both tough to build on and beloved by area residents and environmentalists, who are increasingly galvanized to protect what's left.
"They can't leapfrog anymore. Whatever they build is going to be in somebody's backyard," said Ray Chandos, a longtime resident of rural Trabuco Canyon who has sued to stop several projects.
"It's some of the prettiest land you'll ever see," said market analyst Mark Boud of Real Estate Economics, which does marketing and feasibility studies for the Irvine Co. and Rancho Mission Viejo. "I think [landowners have] done an excellent job of
Other parcels, like the shuttered El Toro Marine Corps Air Station or former oil production sites in North County, may face lengthy, costly soil cleanup before building can begin.
Yet Orange County is leading the way for the rest of the region, said William Fulton, coauthor of a USC report "Sprawl Hits the Wall." He says that build-out will occur here first, presaging a 200-mile-long swath of urbanization from Tejon Ranch in the north to San Diego.
The county, one of the region's smallest in area, is also one of the most crowded, with 980,000 homes and 3 million residents. That translates into 3,600-plus residents per square mile, according to the 2000 census, compared with 670 people per square mile in San Diego County. Even Los Angeles County has more elbow room, with 2,300 residents per square mile.
