Across the political world, there's been a general assumption that ordinary voters won't cast any meaningful ballots in the Democratic presidential race until January, when the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary kick off the competition for delegates to the party convention.
But in fact, the first significant vote in the race will be cast this week -- not in Iowa or New Hampshire or any other state, but in cyberspace.
From 9 a.m. PDT today until 8:59 p.m. Wednesday, MoveOn.org, a 1.4-million-member Internet-based liberal advocacy group formed to oppose the impeachment of President Clinton, will hold an online primary to determine whether it should endorse one of the nine Democratic presidential candidates. It's possible that more people will vote in this primary than in the Iowa and New Hampshire contests combined.
This New Age plebiscite could mark a significant turn in the 2004 race and a milestone in the development of the Internet as a political tool. The Internet probably won't replace television anytime soon as the dominant way campaigns communicate with voters. But its use is steadily growing. And if the MoveOn.org endorsement plays out as its sponsors hope, the process could enormously accelerate the Internet's use in campaigns.
"I expect that by the [2008] presidential election, there will be dozens of organizations like MoveOn," said Wes Boyd, the group's president.
No one can predict exactly how much support from MoveOn will be worth because no one has ever tried "to deliver a virtual group" in the presidential race on this scale, noted Steve Rabinowitz, a leading Democratic technology consultant. But MoveOn's track record suggests it could quickly become a major source of volunteers and money if one of the Democrats can cross the demanding threshold the group has established for providing its endorsement: capturing at least 50% of the votes cast.
"It could be a huge support, not just in grass roots, but in contributions," said Joe Trippi, campaign manager for former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who's considered the clear favorite to win the group's support.
MoveOn qualifies as a genuine grass-roots phenomenon. It has no office and just four employees, all of whom work at home in different cities. It was founded in 1998 when Boyd and his wife, Joan Blades -- two wealthy Silicon Valley software developers -- put up a Web site with an electronic petition urging Congress to censure (rather than impeach) Clinton and "move on" to other issues. Within weeks, half a million people had signed on.
