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Iraq War May Incite Terrorists

Saudi authorities fear increased attacks. They cite Al Qaeda's presence and a rise in arms smuggling and violence against Westerners.

March 15, 2003|Michael Slackman | Times Staff Writer

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — The terrain toward the foot of the Arabian Peninsula is unforgiving: jagged, rocky hills and barren deserts that make life difficult but smuggling easy. Handguns, machine guns, shoulder-launched rockets, plastic explosives, all styles of weapons are the contraband of choice.

The pace of smuggling into Saudi Arabia from neighboring Yemen has quickened in recent times. That has authorities here worried because the increase coincides with a rash of killings, shootings and bombings aimed at both Westerners and local Saudi officials.

In a country where weapons reportedly are common and the people increasingly hostile to the West, and with the knowledge that Al Qaeda cells are operating here, there is widespread fear that a U.S. invasion of Iraq would spark an outbreak of terrorist strikes.

"Al Qaeda has the ability to commit spectacular acts here," said a Western security expert with close ties to international intelligence agencies and years of experience in the Middle East. "Thousands of people have weapons."

The strikes might be simple and random, such as an attack on a Westerner stopped at a traffic light. That's how Robert Dent, 37, a British citizen with two young children, was killed last month -- shot in the head and chest.

Or they could be of the Sept. 11 variety, with mass casualties, such as the downing of a passenger jetliner with missiles. Authorities say they have found shoulder-launched surface-to-air missiles in the kingdom, and they expect that more are hidden and ready for use. Terrorists with missiles tried but failed to shoot down an Israeli charter jet taking off in Kenya last fall.

"There are many indications that terrorist groups are looking at a U.S. attack against Iraq as a convenient trigger" for a strike in Saudi Arabia, said a Western diplomat based here who requested anonymity.

Saudi officials fear that a terrorist attack could undermine their regime and at the least cause Westerners to flee, hurting the economy by scaring away foreign workers and investment.

The environment has become so tense that Canada has ordered families of its embassy employees to return home. The American telecommunications equipment maker Lucent Technologies has issued a mandatory evacuation call for all Western dependents, nearly 300 families in all. The U.S. and British embassies have issued an "authorized departure," which is voluntary, for nonessential employees and family members. Many more companies and embassies have not yet made the call to leave, but all are paying close attention to current events.

Authorities can't say for sure how extensive Al Qaeda's reach is in Saudi Arabia or the region, but government officials, diplomats and security experts have said the terrorist network has active members here and in other Persian Gulf nations. Saudi officials declined repeated requests for comment, but the government says that it has put 90 Saudis on trial for alleged links to Al Qaeda and that 250 of its citizens are under investigation. Recently, it has stepped up internal security efforts in both dramatic and subtle ways.

Saudi newspapers, for example, have largely stopped referring to suicide bombers in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as martyrs, as part of a concerted effort to stop motivating recruits. Men who have been to Afghanistan in the last few years are being questioned by authorities and in some cases held. And Saudi security agents have begun locking up those who inspire hate and who call on people to commit crimes in the name of religion.

"The new thing is to go after the motivators," said Jamal Khashoggi, deputy editor of the English-language Arab News in Jidda. "Even though they are not involved in the violence, the ideological link is dangerous enough."

The crackdown has been problematic for the kingdom, politically and strategically. The Western-leaning government does not want to be seen as doing the bidding of the U.S., especially at a time when anti-American sentiment is rising on the street in reaction to the Iraq crisis and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and it does not want to create an environment that will inspire more terrorism recruits. In fact, security analysts believe that Al Qaeda has grown so frustrated with the crackdown that it has tried to step up its strikes within the kingdom.

The suspect arrested in connection with the Feb. 20 shooting of Dent told investigators that he went to a supermarket called Panda because it was frequented by foreigners. Sources said the suspect first considered shooting a man who was shopping with a woman and a child. Then he decided on Dent.

The U.S. Embassy informed Americans here that Dent's killing was "a terrorist act directed at a Westerner selected as a target of opportunity." The embassy also said the suspect "has associations with known terrorist elements."

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