In predicted order of finish.
1. Houston Astros
Who's new: 2B Jeff Kent, P Brian Moehler.
Who's gone: OF Daryle Ward, INF Mark Loretta, P Dave Mlicki, T.J. Mathews, Nelson Cruz and Doug Brocail.
Strengths: Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller give the Astros one of baseball's best one-two pitching punches -- they are 64-24 (.727) the last two seasons, second only to Arizona's Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, who went 90-24 (.789). The addition of Kent, a perennial 100-RBI threat, turns a solid lineup into a lethal one. A deep bullpen is anchored by Billy Wagner and Octavio Dotel, who had a 1.85 ERA in 83 games in 2002.
Weaknesses: The Astros led the NL with a .986 fielding percentage last season, but that statistic is deceiving -- they may catch the balls they get to, but with limited range at almost every position, they don't reach many. Ward's departure makes them better in left field, but they did not improve anywhere else. Craig Biggio is making the difficult transition from second base to center field.
Outlook: If the bullpen turns out to be as good as people think -- Brad Lidge, who has a 95-mph fastball and an effective breaking ball, could be a key -- the Astros' overall pitching should give them an edge over St. Louis. Kent has fit in well, and should provide the offensive boost for Houston to overcome the Cardinals.
At Dodger Stadium: Sept. 1-3.
PROJECTED LINEUP
CF Craig Biggio
SS Julio Lugo
1B Jeff Bagwell
LF Lance Berkman
2B Jeff Kent
RF Richard Hidalgo
3B Geoff Blum
C Brad Ausmus
STARTING PITCHERS
Roy Oswalt
Wade Miller
Brian Moehler
Tim Redding
Jeriome Robertson
BULLPEN
Billy Wagner
Octavio Dotel
Pete Munro
Ricky Stone
Brad Lidge
*
2. St. Louis Cardinals
Who's new: P Chris Carpenter, Dustin Hermanson and Brett Tomko, C Joe Girardi, OF Orlando Palmeiro.
Who's gone: P Chuck Finley, Dave Veres, Rick White, Andy Benes, Luther Hackman, Jamey Wright, C Mike DiFelice.
Strengths: With 2002 Gold Glove winners at third base, shortstop, second base and center field and a 2001 Gold Glove winner behind the plate, the Cardinals may have baseball's best defense. Albert Pujols has quickly established himself as one of the top hitters in the game. The lineup is balanced, with four bats from the left side and four from the right.
Weaknesses: The Nos. 2 and 3 starters are not awe-inspiring. As good as Woody Williams was in 2002 (9-4, 2.53 ERA), a recurring rib-cage injury limited him to 17 starts. Jason Isringhausen underwent shoulder surgery over the winter and begins the season on the disabled list. OF J.D. Drew, recovering from knee surgery, will be sidelined until May.
Outlook: The Cardinals have won or shared the last three division titles, but they're going to need career years from Williams and Tomko to make it four in a row. If Fernando Vina, whose on-base percentage dropped from .380 to .333 in three seasons, does a better job of setting the table, St. Louis could overcome its lack of pitching depth.
At Dodger Stadium: July 17-20.
PROJECTED LINEUP
2B Fernando Vina
SS Edgar Renteria
CF Jim Edmonds
LF Albert Pujols
3B Scott Rolen
1B Tino Martinez
RF Eli Marrero
C Mike Matheny
STARTING PITCHERS
Matt Morris
Woody Williams
Brett Tomko
Jason Simontacchi
Garrett Stephenson
BULLPEN
Jason Isringhausen
Steve Kline
Jeff Fassero
Cal Eldred
Russ Springer
Lance Painter
*
3. Chicago Cubs
Who's new: P Shawn Estes, Mike Remlinger, Dave Veres and Mark Guthrie, 1B Eric Karros, 2B Mark Grudzielanek, C Damian Miller, OF Troy O'Leary.
Who's gone: 1B Fred McGriff, C Todd Hundley, P Jon Lieber and Jason Bere, C Joe Girardi, OF Chad Hermansen, INF Chris Stynes.
Strengths: The Cubs have two of baseball's top young power pitchers in Kerry Wood, who struck out 217 in 213 2/3 innings last season, and Mark Prior, 22, who struck out 147 in 116 2/3 big league innings. The addition of Remlinger, Veres and Guthrie provides depth in the bullpen, the defense should improve with Hee Seop Choi at first and Miller behind the plate.
Weaknesses: The Cubs led the major leagues with 1,269 strikeouts last season. They need to improve their on-base percentage to have any chance of winning the low-scoring games they expect this season. Antonio Alfonseca tied for the NL lead in blown saves (nine) and is out until May because of a pulled right hamstring.
Outlook: Some think Chicago, under new Manager Dusty Baker, could be the Angels of 2003, a surprise team that makes a strong run for the pennant. But while the Cubs may have the pitching to contend, they don't appear to have the kind of lineup to keep up with Houston and St. Louis.
At Dodger Stadium: Aug. 8-10.
PROJECTED LINEUP
2B M. Grudzielanek
SS Alex Gonzalez
RF Sammy Sosa
LF Moises Alou
1B Hee Seop Choi
CF Corey Patterson
3B Mark Bellhorn
C Damian Miller
STARTING PITCHERS
Kerry Wood
Mark Prior
Matt Clement
Shawn Estes
Carlos Zambrano
BULLPEN
Antonio Alfonseca
Mike Remlinger
Dave Veres
Mark Guthrie
Kyle Farnsworth
*
4. Cincinnati Reds
Who's new: P Paul Wilson, Felix Heredia and Kent Mercker, SS Felipe Lopez.
