Neck and Neck With Many Miles to Go

If anything, contrary to most expectations, the race appears more wide open now than it was when it began a few months ago.

"Everyone is looking at different harbingers -- money, debate performance, the one big idea -- wondering if maybe that's the differentiating factor," said David Axelrod, a media consultant for Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, one of the nine White House contestants. "The fact is they all have weight. They're all important."

And they all give different candidates a reason to claim success. Edwards raised the most money in the year's first quarter, but Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts ended with the biggest cash reserve. Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri has sparked the most discussion with his ambitious health-care proposal, but Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut was widely judged the best performer at last weekend's first face-to-face debate.

Toss in former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who has stirred the most grass-roots enthusiasm, and the result is a race that has "tiered a little bit," separating those five candidates from the rest of the field, said Bill Carrick, a Gephardt strategist. "But I don't think you can say anybody is the front-runner."

Given that, the next phase of the campaign seems obvious, as the Democrats begin to focus less on their criticisms of President Bush and more on the differences among themselves. After all, "Just beating the hell out of Bush doesn't offer much distinction," as David Doak, an unaffiliated Democratic strategist, put it.

So while the candidates continue their long-running argument over the Iraq war, with Dean leading the opposition, they have broadened their debate to include a discussion of taxes, health care, energy policy and the proper size and scope of the federal government. Those issues may resurface Saturday when the Democratic hopefuls share a stage in Des Moines, at a forum held by the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.

Some fret over the increased pushing and shoving, fearing it only helps the opposition. Others welcome the fight.