"What they know about [the candidates] is sort of a one-line sketch relief," said Hart, who has conducted hundreds of polls and focus groups over more than two decades. "Nobody's anywhere."
The political dynamic gives both sides reason for optimism during the next 12 months.
Although Bush is clearly at risk, no Democrat has yet emerged as a strong threat. That makes the sentiments of people like Freers, an undecided voter in the swing suburbs of a swing state, all the more important.
Michigan can be a tough place for Republicans, particularly when the economy is hurting, said campaign consultant Mike Murphy, one of the GOP's leading experts on the state. "But you've got to win the tough swing states ... if you're going to be president."
Indeed, Michigan and Pennsylvania are two places the White House has targeted in hopes of avoiding a repeat of the cliff-hanging 2000 election. Bush lost them both by small margins. Since taking office, he has visited Pennsylvania 22 times -- more than any other state -- and traveled to Michigan on 11 occasions.
Still, there is work to be done. In a recent poll in Michigan, just 37% said Bush deserved reelection. Roughly 60% gave the president poor marks for his handling of the economy, as they did for the situation in Iraq. Overall, Bush had a 52% negative job rating. By contrast, 60% gave high marks to the state's new Democratic governor, Jennifer Granholm, even as she wrestles with a $900-million deficit after having slashed $2 billion in programs over the summer.
"The bottom line is the economy," said Ed Sarpolus, an independent researcher who conducted the October survey. "People don't see the president putting enough focus on the economy."
Michigan, which tends to follow the nation's economic cycles in the extreme, has been especially hard-hit by the downturn in the country's manufacturing industries.
The 1990s were a heady time here, with state unemployment dipping as low as 3%. This September, it stood at 7.4%, a 10-year high and a full percentage point above the national rate.
Since 2000, Michigan has lost 300,000 jobs, including 168,000 in manufacturing, or one of every five factory positions. The auto industry, still Michigan's main economic engine, continues to lose ground to foreign competition. By 2002, Detroit's combined share of the U.S. car and truck market had fallen to 61.5% -- down from 72.1% a decade earlier.
