"They were the guys who got drafted in the Vietnam War and who came back without saying a word," Michael K. Deaver, a longtime Reagan advisor, once said. "They packed their lunches in Igloo coolers and opened their heating bills with trepidation."
After considerable effort -- and a break with Democratic orthodoxy on issues such as welfare and the death penalty -- Clinton made Macomb competitive again for Democrats: He won here in 1996 and Vice President Al Gore carried it in 2000. Lately, however, Macomb has become more reliably Republican as the Igloo coolers give way to Frappuccinos and the utility bills go to heat a growing number of fancy homes.
At the same time, neighboring Oakland County, long a GOP stronghold, has grown more Democratic as the emergent high-tech industries along I-696 -- Automation Alley, as it is known -- lure younger, more progressive residents to the suburbs stretching north of Detroit's Eight Mile Road. "The sons and daughters of the Reagan Democrats have all moved to Oakland and gotten college degrees," said polltaker Sarpolus. "And they've brought their liberal social views with them."
Together, the two counties could be the place where Michigan is won or lost in 2004, which makes them an important barometer for the rest of the country. And no issue -- not even the occupation of Iraq -- appears more important now than the economy and the question of whether statistical growth will translate into a tangible sense that people are better off.
"You tell me the unemployment rate next summer, tell me what per capita income is and what the change in personal income has been since 2000, and I'll give you a pretty good guess of how the November election will go," said Craig Ruff, a nonpartisan analyst who has spent decades in Lansing studying public policy.
"People in Michigan are used to going through this pendulum swing. But confidence has to rebound if Bush is going to do better in 2004 than he did in 2000."
Times staff writer Doyle McManus contributed to this report.
