Gauging the Oscar odds

As the head of the entertainment division of Sitrick and Co., a leading crisis-management public relations firm, Allan Mayer is an expert spinmeister on showbiz scandal and disaster. He's helped Rush Limbaugh deal with the fallout from revelations that he was addicted to painkillers allegedly obtained from his maid. He's been aiding R. Kelly, who is facing 21 felony counts of possessing child pornography. He also advised Paula Poundstone after the comedian's children were put into foster care following her pleading no contest to charges of child endangerment.

So what's Mayer doing working as an Oscar consultant for New Line Cinema's "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"? Has a rival film studio been spreading malicious gossip about a Hobbit payola scandal? Is the National Enquirer at work on an expose about the movie's sexed-up special effects? Or, to be slightly more serious, have the Oscars become such a high-stakes face-off that studios need damage control experts to help their films navigate the often bumpy ride that leads to Academy Awards glory?

"Even though we're best known for crisis management, what we fundamentally sell is strategic counsel," says Mayer, a former magazine editor and political reporter. "I think our involvement shows that the Oscars have an importance beyond peer recognition of talent. For a lot of studios, Oscar nominations have a huge economic importance. And for New Line, it's a big issue of pride -- they bet the company on this movie."

New Line marketing chief Russell Schwartz says he learned of Mayer from the work he did for Universal Pictures as a troubleshooter for "A Beautiful Mind," the Russell Crowe-starring biopic that won best picture in 2002, despite being dogged by charges that it had sanitized the troubled life of mathematician John Forbes Nash.

But Schwartz insists he didn't hire Mayer because he was worried that "The Lord of the Rings" would be a target of the dirty tricks that have become an all-too-familiar occurrence in recent Oscar campaigns.

"We feel Allan is a terrific strategist who has the ability to get our movie off the entertainment pages and stimulate broader kinds of editorial coverage," says Schwartz, who signed Mayer to an exclusive yearlong contract this March. "It's an out-of-the-box choice, but we feel that because he's an outsider, he can help us try to find a unique way to position the movie."