Arnold plays hardball on a softball circuit

Carrick and Steinberg also agreed that there is a clear precedent for the way Schwarzenegger's campaign is being waged, though to find it, you have to look not to politics -- but to Hollywood. "I really think a lot of what we're seeing has to do with his experience marketing movies," Carrick said. "Just look at the way he moved across the marketing spectrum this week. If you want younger white men to vote for you, then you go on Howard Stern. If you're after soccer moms, Oprah has them in her audience. Larry's program gives you the middle of the market."

All of this suggests to Carrick that "Arnold must have some genuinely hands-on influence over his campaign's media strategy, because he is duplicating what has worked so often for him in the movie business. This time, he's promoting his candidacy instead of a film."

Steinberg believes that Schwarzenegger has capitalized shrewdly on another aspect of this marketing approach. "The hosts of these kinds of shows book the guests they do because they know that big celebrities drive up their ratings," he said. "It's commonplace when making these kinds of entertainment bookings for the guests to set conditions and limits on the kinds of things that can be asked -- in other words, no tough questions. That's not the case with political reporters.

"Larry King is a notorious pitcher of softballs. The last time Arnold was on the Stern show, Howard asked whether he could watch him have sex with his wife. Since nothing similarly outrageous came up this time, I infer that some sort of agreement was reached in advance."

Carrick concurred: "It's in the nature of Oprah and Larry that they do friendly shows. It's what their viewers expect. Neither one of them has what you'd call a slashing interview style. These folks don't come from the Mike Wallace school of journalism. They do conversational television where you talk about personalities and feelings."

So, will all this work?

Both analysts agree that the answer will be determined, in some large measure, by turnout.

If it is small, the electorate will be comprised of the people pollsters call "likely voters," what Hollywood might term "the usual suspects." They are more partisan than the population at large, more attentive to political journalism and, therefore, more likely to share its practitioners' frustration with Schwarzenegger's elusiveness.

If, on the other hand, the recall brings out voters who don't usually exercise their franchise, other rules may apply.