In the course of a typical election, a political debate like the one set for this evening at Cal State Sacramento would have little chance of altering the dynamics of the race. Few people tune in to such events, and unless a candidate commits a major gaffe, debates usually just solidify impressions voters already have, political analysts say.
"Academics call it 'expectancy theory,' " said Raymond Zeuschner, a professor of speech communication at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo. "It says that what you expect to see is what you will see."
But the 2003 gubernatorial recall election has been anything but typical. The high level of interest in this race, combined with Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger's decision to participate only in this forum, has trained a larger-than-usual spotlight on the event and heightens the odds that it could affect voters' perception of the candidates, many experts say.
The 90-minute debate, the fifth forum involving most of the major candidates running in the Oct. 7 election, begins at 6 p.m. and will be broadcast statewide on multiple radio and television stations. It will feature Schwarzenegger, Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock, Green Party candidate Peter Camejo and independent Arianna Huffington.
The man they seek to replace, Gov. Gray Davis, last week took part in a separate forum organized by tonight's co-sponsors and was not invited to this event.
Underscoring the potential effect of the debate, two out of three likely voters say the event will play an important role in influencing their vote, according to a new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California. More than 250 reporters are expected to cover the debate, which is co-sponsored by the university and the California Broadcasters Assn.
"Because there is all this focus and attention, the debate has taken on added significance," said Joseph Tuman, a professor of political communication at San Francisco State.
Although candidates regularly skirmish behind the scenes for debate advantage, the Sacramento debate -- and Schwarzenegger's refusal to engage his rivals any other time -- has blossomed into a campaign issue. Both Bustamante and McClintock have gone after the actor in recent weeks for participating only in tonight's forum -- which, they note, is the only one for which the questions were provided in advance.
