'Alamo' May Be a Lost Battle for Disney

Walt Disney Co.'s $100-million feature tied for third place at the box office, with an estimated $9.2 million in ticket sales, as Mel Gibson's "The Passion of the Christ" went from fifth place to No. 1 and Sony Pictures Entertainment's "Hellboy" landed at No. 2.

The other film that came in third, the Fox Searchlight comedy "Johnson Family Vacation," showed in roughly half as many theaters as "The Alamo."

"It was a disappointment to open at this number," said Chuck Viane, president of Disney's Buena Vista Pictures Distribution, "because you have so many people who worked so diligently on this movie."

Analyst Tom Wolzien of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. called the opening "inauspicious." But he cautioned against drawing conclusions about the effect the film's showing might have on Disney or its chief executive, Michael Eisner, who was stripped of the chairmanship last month after shareholders delivered a stinging rebuke of his leadership and the company's financial and stock performance.

"I tell people that they should never buy these stocks based on how well these movies do," Wolzien said, adding, "You get your ups and downs in the movie business -- and this is not one of the ups."

Last year the Disney studio enjoyed a record year. This year has been rocky so far, with "Hidalgo" and "The Ladykillers" not meeting expectations, analysts said, and the animated feature "Home on the Range" having such a lackluster start that there was speculation the company might have to take a write-down on it.

And unlike Wolzien, some analysts do figure there's a connection between box-office and companywide performance. Along with "Home on the Range" -- which finished sixth over the weekend -- they view "The Alamo" as an important swing factor in the studio's earnings. Some have said they might revise their financial estimates for the whole company based on how "The Alamo" fares.

"Some investors will closely scrutinize the performance of "The Alamo," Jordan Rohan, an analyst with Schwab SoundView, said in a research note.

To recoup its costs, Disney needs "The Alamo" to make a strong showing next weekend, when it faces competition from two other movies heavily oriented toward male viewers: Disney unit Miramax Film Corp.'s "Kill Bill Volume 2" and "The Punisher" by Lions Gate/Artisan.