Bush Move on Mideast May Sway Jewish Vote
When President Bush announced a major shift this week in Middle East policy, the news was heralded on the Republican Jewish Coalition website with smiling photos of Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and a headline declaring, "President Bush Backs Israel, Yet Again."
Bush's recognition of permanent Israeli settlements in the West Bank was "a watershed event" in the long, fraternal relationship between the United States and Israel, said William Daroff, the group's deputy chief.
Republicans are hoping the shift will mark a watershed in presidential politics as well.
Bush lost almost 80% of the Jewish vote to Democrat Al Gore in 2000, a performance consistent with patterns through much of the 20th century.
But GOP strategists and some independent analysts believe Bush could markedly improve that showing in November.
Few expect Bush to draw more Jewish votes than Sen. John F. Kerry, the presumptive Democratic nominee, who is a long-standing friend of Israel and was quick to second the policy shift.
However, even a marginal improvement in Bush's showing could make a difference, given the expected closeness of November's election in several states with significant Jewish populations, such as Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Noting the 537-vote margin by which Bush carried Florida, Daroff said that "changing one vote per condominium in one square mile" of the state's heavily Jewish "Gold Coast" could make the difference in November.
David A. Harris, head of the nonpartisan American Jewish Committee, agreed. "There is an elastic band of undecided voters that may be somewhere in the range of 20 to 25% of American Jews," Harris said. "Capturing that undecided group is the name of the game for both parties."
The test, he added, "will really be the interplay between the president's perceived strong support for Israel and the war against terrorism
Jews make up only about 2% of the U.S. population and only about 4% of the electorate nationwide. But they are routinely among the most likely to show up on election day, with turnout averaging about 80% of eligible voters.
Jewish donors -- clustered in the population centers of Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Miami and New York -- also have been among the most generous givers to Democratic candidates and causes. That presents Republicans with an added incentive to woo Jewish supporters away from Kerry.
