And while many Christian conservatives are deeply sympathetic toward Israel, a significant percentage of Jews remain suspicious of the religious right, which is an important part of Bush's political base.
An American Jewish Committee survey last fall found that 20% of American Jews believed that most members of the religious right were anti-Semitic, and another 21% believed that many were. Only 17% said there was little or no anti-Semitism within the religious right.
The same survey -- conducted among 1,000 people who identified themselves as Jews -- also found that 40% described themselves as at least somewhat liberal, 33% as moderate and 27% as at least somewhat conservative. That compares with roughly 27% of adults nationwide who described themselves as liberal and 41% as conservative in a Los Angeles Times poll last month.
Still, Bush has won many friends in the Jewish community with his consistently strong support of Israel and Sharon. On Wednesday, Bush embraced the prime minister's plan for seeking Middle East peace, which includes a unilateral Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and rejection of Palestinian claims of a "right to return" to Israel.
While no one -- Democrat or Republican -- suggests that Bush took that step for domestic political reasons, allies said the move would only enhance his standing with Jewish voters. "There has never been a more pro-Israel president of the United States," Daroff said.
Nine states with significant Jewish populations account for 212 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, according to an analysis by Windmueller of Hebrew Union College. Among those, most handicappers predict the two most populous states -- California and New York -- will back Kerry, along with Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Maryland.
Up for grabs are Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, which account for 68 electoral votes.
And the Jewish vote in Michigan, Missouri, Nevada and Arizona -- though smaller than in these other states -- could be crucial in determining November's winner in each.
The great unknown is whether Israel and the fight against terrorism will outweigh other issues in the minds of Jewish voters. In 1980, Ronald Reagan won almost 40% of the Jewish vote -- the best Republican showing in a generation -- because of doubts about President Carter's leadership and a sense among some Jewish voters that he was trying to impose an onerous peace settlement on Israel.
Most Jews, like most voters, do not cast their ballots on the basis of any one issue, analysts said. While protecting the Jewish homeland is a concern, American Jews tend to move quickly past that issue so long as they are assured a candidate is not anti-Semitic or hostile toward Israel.
Forman, of the National Jewish Democratic Council, agreed with Daroff that Bush had been a friend of Israel. "But he's no more friendly than [President] Clinton or Sen. Kerry," Forman said. "Support for Israel, for combating terrorism and worldwide anti-Semitism is a bipartisan issue. So that's not even a question in this election."
