PALM SPRINGS — There was no question who was the star of the Seismological Society of America's annual meeting here over the last few days.
It was a slightly built, 82-year-old UCLA professor from Russia. Vladimir Keilis-Borok has been studying how to predict temblors for decades, and his work has often been eyed skeptically by many colleagues who are highly dubious that quakes can be predicted.
But Keilis-Borok and his international research team are on a roll: They predicted in a general way two major quakes, including the Paso Robles temblor that struck in December. Now, they are predicting that a magnitude 6.4 or larger earthquake will strike somewhere in a 12,000-square-mile swath of the Southern California desert by Sept. 5.
This is not the only warning of a larger quake in the area. At last week's meeting, University of Oregon geologist Ray Weldon said research he had done on the San Andreas fault at Wrightwood near the Cajon Pass also indicated there might be a large quake impending on southern segments of the San Andreas in the same area as Keilis-Borok's prediction.
In a statement issued Thursday, acting California state geologist Michael Reichle said: "People shouldn't jump to the conclusion that this report means the Big One is imminent. It is simply another reminder that we need to be prepared for the inevitability of major earthquakes in California."
Keilis-Borok's recent track record made him the center of attention at the gathering of seismologists from around the nation and is earning grudging respect -- and curiosity -- from skeptics.
His speech at the convention drew the biggest audience and the most audience questions and applause. Somewhat to his own embarrassment, his talk also lasted the longest. After his speech, he was swarmed by scientists who had more questions.
"Everybody loves prediction," said Lisa Grant, an earthquake scientist at UC Irvine.
To many quake experts, the warm reception Keilis-Borok received underscores how much scientists desire reliable earthquake predictions, even though many believe quakes result from a random process that may never be precisely predictable.
The Keilis-Borok team does not predict the exact date, place or magnitude of a quake. Rather, it uses general times and locations.
