VARADERO, Cuba — At first glance, it wouldn't seem that Reynaldo Palaso's fortunes would be tied up with the U.S. presidential election.
But the father of two, who zips his dune buggy through the sugar-fine sand of Cuba's biggest resort enclave to deliver sodas and snacks to sun-worshiping foreign tourists, says he is avidly following the latest polls and candidate statements. He is watching for indications that the Democratic nominee, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, is pulling ahead.
Expectations of a Kerry victory and relief from more than four decades of sanctions are probably driven more by wishful thinking than any concrete indication that relations between Washington and the Western Hemisphere's last bastion of communist rule are about to improve.
The Democratic nominee has said only that he opposes tough new regulations limiting family visits and that he supports "principled tourism" by U.S. citizens to show the benefits of democracy to Cubans.
Still, many Cubans are raptly following the U.S. presidential campaign and pinning their hopes on Kerry.
Palaso's interpretation is that Kerry will lift the U.S. ban on travel to Cuba, which he says would be very good for the island nation.
"We're not well-prepared for a big influx, so there could be more opportunity for private enterprise," said Palaso, whose income from tips is as much as 30 times the average Cuban's salary. "Everyone knows if we don't take good care of the U.S. tourists, we will lose the trade to other countries.
"The Cuban people are brothers with the American people," Palaso insisted, stocking his battered Styrofoam cooler with soft drinks and beer, then loading it onto the motorized cart he rents from the state. "The problem is not between the people, but with the system."
Waitress Mayda Garcia at the Vicaria Italian restaurant said Cubans feel their fate is in the hands of U.S. voters.
"We know President Bush will continue to abuse us, but the other one says he will let Americans travel here," Garcia said, momentarily forgetting the challenger's name. "We don't know if he will actually do it, but we have to hope that our U.S. neighbors agree it makes no sense to keep in place these barriers between us."
Accustomed to heavy doses of political direction from Havana, Cubans have long seen themselves as victims of misguided U.S. policy that will be corrected once a right-thinking leader occupies the White House. State-run television and newspapers keep track of setbacks for Bush and any poll or analysis casting Kerry as the front-runner.
