The United States and China recently announced plans for a "sports summit," starting next June in Seattle -- presumably to scout each other's teams.
Asked whether the U.S. and China might develop a rivalry like that between the U.S. and the former Soviet Union, which animated the Olympics during the Cold War, Scherr said he anticipated only a "friendly rivalry."
"As a world rival to the United States on the world stage, with its population and economic resources and growing economic abilities, and as that translates to sport, I think right now you're seeing them emerge," he said.
But even China's first gold-medal winner cautioned that Olympic supremacy would take years.
"It's possible that China will become the country which wins the most gold medals in the Olympics but it takes time, because we are still quite weak in track and field," said Xu, who now coaches the Olympic shooting team. "It will at least take one or two generations of effort to make it to the top."
Underscoring the intense preparation effort, some 4,000 sports schools -- most featuring barracks-style housing -- are now competing to join 200 nationwide that will receive additional government funding in their efforts to produce Olympic-caliber athletes.
In 40 years, the Beijing Shichahai Sports School has trained 3,000 competitors -- 25 of them becoming world champions in events such as gymnastics, table tennis and chess.
This year, four Olympic competitors have been chosen from the school's 500 students. But Liu Hongbin, the institute's director, feels the pressure to keep producing winners, so he is offering bonuses to any of the school's 50 coaches whose students claim Olympic gold at Athens or in any future Olympics.
"If we don't win gold, it would be seen as a shame," he said.
Student-athletes at the school as young as 6 often are away from home for years as they perfect their routines.
The pressure takes its toll. Young Situ Shiyi says she doesn't miss her mother as much as she used to. Martial arts student Gao Jing, 14, knows the five years spent at the school have caused her to miss out on some of the fun of being a teenager.
But the sacrifices will be worth it if her sport one day becomes an Olympic competition. That way she can try to bring home the gold.
"That would be great, to win a gold medal," said Gao. "It would be great for China."
Glionna reported from Beijing, Abrahamson from Athens.
