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Bush Aims to Solidify His Base

Ensuring a large GOP turnout might be more important than winning swing voters, a strategist says. Kerry's focus remains the undecided.

THE RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE

August 22, 2004|Ronald Brownstein, Times Staff Writer

"When you have the president in Pensacola and [similar] markets

Kerry, by contrast, in his travel, message and ad purchases, has divided his effort more evenly between energizing core Democrats and wooing less ideological swing voters, say many observers in both parties.


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The Bush campaign strategy fits with a presidency that often has appeared more intent on deepening than broadening support.

On most major issues -- from tax cuts and environmental protection to the decision to invade Iraq without explicit U.N. authorization -- Bush has embraced policies that draw much better marks from his base than swing voters.

Democratic operatives assert that the president's efforts are driven not so much by his strength among Republicans as his weakness among undecided voters.

"Bush isn't going to get many of them, no matter what," said John Sasso, general election manager at the Democratic National Committee, citing widespread pessimism about the economy and the country's overall direction, as evident in polling answers from persuadable voters. "He has only two choices: He can either tear Kerry down and try to make him entirely unacceptable [to those voters], or he can try to jack up his base vote. And that's what you are seeing."

Bush advisors reject the idea that they are downplaying swing voters and point out that moderate Republicans will dominate the prime-time speaking slots at the party convention.

But senior GOP strategists acknowledge that the campaign thinks expanded margins among core Republican constituencies could provide Bush his best chance of winning if most voters who are still undecided late in the campaign follow the usual pattern and break against the incumbent.

"If the concern is the undecided are going to break the other way, how do you overcome that?" said one Republican strategist familiar with White House thinking. "One approach is to try to win over the undecideds. The other is to try to get out more of the people who are voting for you 90% of the time."

The modern presidential campaign is such a vast and lengthy enterprise that Bush and Kerry can lavish time and money on pursuing both their base and swing voters.

Each is aiming much of his advertising budget at the same closely fought communities, such as Orlando and Tampa, Fla.; Des Moines; Pittsburgh; and Dayton, Ohio. And though Kerry has devoted much of his post-convention bus and train tour to conservative-leaning rural areas, he's also found time for the same sort of base-tending his campaign accuses Bush of over-emphasizing.

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