With that emphasis, the Bush campaign appears to hope it can replicate the experience of 2002. In states such as Minnesota, Missouri and Georgia, Republicans made unexpected gains in the Senate and House mid-term elections largely by swelling their margins in GOP-leaning areas.
Post-election surveys in 2002 showed that Republicans outnumbered Democrats among voters, 38% to 35%. In 2000, self-identified Democrats outnumbered Republicans, 39% to 35%, according to exit polls.
"My hope is that [turnout this year] is even," Dowd said.
Other GOP strategists warn it may be difficult to achieve that goal, with surveys this year showing Democrats holding a small but steady advantage over Republicans in party identification by voters. But even skeptics acknowledge the Bush campaign is showing impressive discipline -- through get-out-the-vote programs and a message emphasizing tax cuts, traditional values, military strength and other core Republican themes -- in attempting to hit its goal of turnout parity.
"The merits about the strategy can certainly be debated," said the veteran GOP operative unaffiliated with the campaign. "The precision with which they are executing the strategy has to be admired."
Bush's advertising focus is another element of the strategy. Although his campaign has spent much of its money matching Kerry's advertising buys in swing communities, the Republicans also have spent heavily in several GOP-leaning media markets where Kerry has invested little or no money.
For instance, Bush has aired nearly 15,000 commercials in the conservative Florida panhandle, even though the area market gave Al Gore only 30% of its votes in 2000, according to ad monitoring data provided to The Times by an independent group supporting Kerry. The group asked not to be named.
The same pattern is evident in places such as Sioux City, Iowa, Ft. Smith, Ark., Yakima, Wash., and markets reaching rural Missouri: heavy Bush buys against virtually no Kerry purchases in Republican-leaning communities.
Bush also has spent much more than Kerry on cable television buys targeted at sympathetic constituencies, like those watching networks emphasizing country music, fishing and hunting, and NASCAR racing, according to data from TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group.
Some Democrats see the same strategy in Bush's travel, which has taken him in recent months to a number of heavily Republican areas, including Sioux City, the Florida Panhandle, and Berkeley County, W.Va.
Dowd responded by saying his figures showed that since the Democratic convention last month, Bush has devoted a greater percentage of his time than Kerry to campaigning in swing communities. Indeed, he said, Bush's travels have included plenty of stops in highly contested terrain, such as Tampa; St. Paul, Minn.; and Davenport, Iowa.
Some Bush supporters worry that focusing on Republican areas, the approach that worked in 2002, may be less applicable in 2004 because so many more people -- including swing voters -- cast ballots in a presidential election than a mid-term election.
"I admire their ruthless execution," said the veteran Republican independent of the campaign, "but it's a scary way to win an election."
