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Rebel Cleric May Have Emerged the Winner

Iraq's interim premier and U.S. forces have no guarantee that Muqtada Sadr will stop fighting.

THE WORLD | NEWS ANALYSIS

August 28, 2004|Alissa J. Rubin, Times Staff Writer

BAGHDAD — Having returned from his sick bed to broker a peace deal freeing Najaf's sacred mosque of rebel fighters, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani appears to have grown into a larger-than-life figure, the one man who could end the deadly conflict between an upstart cleric and the Iraqi government and its U.S. backers.

To win the agreement, Sistani displayed both his moral authority and his ability to rouse a mass movement of supporters literally overnight.


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But at the same time that Sistani burnished his image as the preeminent Shiite Muslim leader in a nation with a Shiite majority, it was anti-U.S. Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr who may have walked away with the best deal: A man accused of being an accessory to murder, Sadr left the mosque with amnesty for any crimes he might have committed, an invitation to join in national politics, and freedom for his militiamen, many of whom remained heavily armed.

Left in a weaker position were interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi and the U.S.-led military forces that back him. Allawi got no guarantee that Sadr would desist from armed activities outside Najaf and neighboring Kufa, leaving open the distinct possibility that he would remobilize his forces and remain, at the least, a thorn in the government's side.

As for American soldiers, they will leave Najaf under the terms of the deal brokered by Sistani a day after he returned home from three weeks of medical treatment in Britain.

It was the second time in less than three months that the Americans were unable to put a firm end to Sadr and his forces. In June, the cleric agreed to leave the Imam Ali Mosque in Najaf without a formal deal being struck, and he and his forces later returned. U.S. troops similarly withdrew from Fallouja after a Sunni Muslim insurgency during the spring.

The pact brokered by Sistani makes Najaf and Kufa, like Fallouja, in effect a no-go zone for U.S. troops.

Key elements of Sistani's deal include the requirements that Najaf and Kufa become weapons-free zones and that armed groups there leave and never return. Under the deal, Iraqi police will be responsible for law enforcement, all foreign troops will leave both cities, and the Iraqi government will compensate Najaf residents for damage from the fighting. Sistani also requested that a census be taken before an Iraqi national election -- a move intended to hold the Allawi government to its promise of having a vote early next year.

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