WASHINGTON — Where do President Bush and Sen. John Kerry think November's presidential election will be decided? The best hint is to follow the money.
A look at the 20 media markets where each campaign has run the most television ads from March 3 through Wednesday shows that the targets for the two sides overlap substantially. But the data, provided to The Times by the nonpartisan TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, also reveal intriguing divergences in strategy.
Fourteen markets rank in the top 20 for both Bush and Kerry. But only Tampa is in the top five for both.
Four other markets are in the top 10 for both candidates: Miami, Las Vegas, Albuquerque and Portland, Ore.
Bush has aired more spots on cable networks than in any individual market; Kerry has spent little on cable.
Orlando, Fla., with a growing population of non-Cuban Latinos, ranks as Kerry's fourth-biggest market but falls just outside Bush's top 20.
Grand Rapids, Mich., a formerly staunch Republican area growing more competitive, ranks fifth for Bush, but doesn't make Kerry's top 20.
The biggest surprises? Phoenix, in Republican-leaning Arizona, ranks third among all markets for Kerry. Minneapolis, the dominant market in a closely contested state and one that ranks in Kerry's top 10, doesn't crack Bush's top 20 list.
Overall, four of the 20 markets where Kerry has aired the most spots are in Florida, three are in Wisconsin and three are in Ohio. Five of the top markets for Bush are in Ohio, three are in Florida, three are in Wisconsin, and five are in Ohio.
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Ad battlegrounds Estimated Ads spending Market aired (in millions)
BUSH:
Miami 3,552 $7.75 Tampa, FL 3,364 4.89 Las Vegas 3,137 4.28 Grand Rapids, MI 3,027 4.10 Cleveland 2,957 7.97 Madison, WI 2,914 2.47 Albuquerque 2,889 2.75 Portland, OR 2,788 1.93 Toledo, OH 2,776 1.51 Phoenix 2,769 3.94 Green Bay, WI 2,728 1.59 Jacksonville, FL 2,643 1.32 Cincinnati 2,641 2.53 Philadelphia 2,614 7.00 Youngstown, OH 2,608 1.35 Columbus, OH 2,539 3.00 Milwaukee 2,530 1.96 Spokane, WA 2,478 0.77 Burlington, VT 2,440 1.05
Estimated Ads spending Market aired (in millions)
KERRY:
Portland, OR 3,691 $2.18 Tampa, FL 3,609 5.01 Phoenix 3,388 4.10 Orlando, FL 3,297 4.34 Seattle 3,284 4.05 Albuquerque 3,284 2.56 Las Vegas 3,120 3.73 Milwaukee 2,937 1.97 Miami 2,919 5.43 Minneapolis 2,861 4.77 Jacksonville, FL 2,784 1.23 Madison, WI 2,777 2.49 Cleveland 2,759 6.71 Green Bay, WI 2,754 1.55 Detroit 2,737 4.55 Columbus, OH 2,627 2.53 Toledo, OH 2,616 1.32 Spokane, WA 2,590 0.72 Des Moines 2,497 0.96 Wilkes Barre, PA 2,494 1.30
Source: TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group
