Uncovering Ukraine's True Colors

In Ukraine, two colors took on a new significance over the last few months. Supporters of opposition presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko -- now the all-but-official president-elect -- donned orange as the symbol of their pro- democracy campaign. Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich and his team sported blue to signal their support for continuing on the path set by pro-Russia President Leonid Kuchma.

This has led to inevitable comparisons to the United States' own red and blue, Republican and Democratic, divide. Given that political differences in Ukraine run along regional lines, observers see the danger of Ukraine dividing into two or more countries.

Our consulting firms, representing a bipartisan partnership of Democratic and Republican pollsters, conducted a national exit poll during the rerun of the presidential runoff election on Sunday. On behalf of the Kiev-based television station ICTV, we interviewed more than 10,000 Ukrainians as they left polling stations across the country, and by 8 p.m. Kiev time, just as the polls closed, we knew that Yushchenko, the man in orange, had won definitively. Although the results aren't official, the votes that have been counted show a victory margin of nearly 10 points and -- despite posturing on the part of Yanukovich -- Ukraine appears to have succeeded in electing a new president and in running a fair election.

But what about the mix of orange and blue, the divide between Ukraine's western and eastern halves? The polling confirmed that some areas voted almost entirely for one candidate. In Donetsk, an eastern industrial province, more than 90% of voters cast their ballot for Yanukovich. Such results indicate that regional division remains a threat, but there is also reason for optimism.

In addition to our 10,000 exit interviews, we also interviewed 1,200 voters from Ukraine's four major provinces, representing the main regions of the country The provinces demonstrate the country's polarization. Just as Donetsk in the east voted 90% for Yanukovich, the western provinces of Kiev and Lviv voted approximately 90% for Yushchenko; Odessa in the south voted approximately 60% for Yanukovich. Even with nearly half of our sample for these interviews constituting blue voters, 81% overall said all sides should work together for consensus and cooperation to strengthen Ukraine after the vote.