SEOUL — How long can the North Korean regime survive?
A decade ago, it was taken as a matter of faith that it soon would be relegated to the same historical dustbin as the Soviet Union. But Kim Jong Il defied predictions of his political demise and embarrassed pundits stopped even broaching the topic of the regime's life expectancy.
Now, the subject is back on the table in a big way.
In South Korea, there are calls to update the government's classified contingency plan -- code-named Chungmu 3300 after a 16th century military hero -- to deal with a possible collapse of the North's regime. The leading government think tank here is dusting off old social science models designed for Eastern Europe in an attempt to predict how much longer Kim can last.
The Japanese media, meanwhile, has been full of breathless rumors -- most of which have proved untrue -- of mass defections by the North Korean military and the circulation of anti-Kim brochures in the North.
"The idea that North Korea is about to collapse is back in fashion," said Jeung Young-Tai, a member of the team at the Seoul-based Korea Institute for National Unification studying the likelihood of collapse.
The latest wave of speculation was triggered by reports last month out of Pyongyang, North Korea's capital, that portraits of Kim had been removed from public buildings frequented by foreign diplomats. It later emerged that Kim had ordered the portraits removed to soften the cult of personality that has invited ridicule and unwelcome comparisons to former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
But the speculation may have less to do with political forces inside North Korea than outside.
In particular, President Bush's reelection has emboldened critics of the North Korean regime in the United States and in Asia who want Kim ousted. The North Korean Human Rights Act, passed in October, allocates up to $24 million to promote better conditions for North Koreans, and has revitalized an activist movement made up largely of Christian missionaries.
The activists have flooded journalists with e-mail and the Internet with unsubstantiated rumors about instability inside North Korea.
"We are seeing a lot of fabricated tales going around lately," said Woo Jung Chang, an editor of the Chosun Monthly, an influential Seoul-based magazine.
"There is a lot of wishful thinking when it comes to predictions of North Korea's collapse," agreed Nicholas Eberstadt, a North Korea expert with the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington.
