To Understand North Korea, Toss Out Old Assumptions

In early 1998, when I began my North Korea assignment at the State Department, I thought I knew all one needed to know about the country. As a Korean American whose mother was born in what is now North Korea and whose father was born in South Korea, I was a super-hawk on North Korea: The country was totalitarian, evil and weak; the U.S. was strong and, with enough pressure, would put this tiny nation in its place. However, I soon realized I had been viewing North Korea and its people as caricatures and that things were not so black and white.

The key to any confrontation is to know your adversary. As the U.S. contemplates its next steps toward Pyongyang, Bush administration officials should be mindful of the myths that they seem to harbor:

North Korea is poised to preemptively attack South Korea, the U.S. or Japan. It's not true. Traditional deterrence works in our favor on the Korean peninsula for now. The North unquestionably has the ability to inflict massive damage in a military conflict, but it knows it would be destroyed if it attacked. Therefore, its goal has become defensive -- a porcupine strategy aimed at potential aggressors.

So why the incessant bluster? In short, North Korea has a huge inferiority complex. Its economy is a shambles; there is little food. It touts its million-man army, yet its military might is slowly deteriorating (most of the North's soldiers I saw were under 5 feet, 5 inches and waif-thin compared with many South Korean GIs who are at least 5 feet, 10 inches and 175 pounds).

The North's leadership is motivated by regime survival and independence, not conquest. However, threatened by President Bush's preemption doctrine and "axis of evil" label, it is willing to go to extremes, and nuclear weapons are but a very dangerous means to an end. The task for the U.S. is to persuade the North it is more secure without these weapons. This requires not only sticks but also carrots and a true willingness to engage.