To Understand North Korea, Toss Out Old Assumptions

The people are waiting for the overthrow of Kim Jong Il. Another myth. The North Korean people are not like those of old Soviet satellite states, ready to throw off the yoke of tyranny. They are more like brainwashed followers of a cult -- Kim Jong Il's cult. North Korea is the world's most isolated country, and most of its people know no other way of life. The reverence in which Kim is held is breathtaking and heartbreaking. At the Communist Workers Party 50th anniversary gala in 2000, during then-Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's visit, I saw 200,000 North Koreans, in white shirt, black tie and coat, break out in adoring ovation for their "Dear Leader." Clearly, not only does Kim see himself the equal of any world leader, but hundreds of thousands of true believers would sacrifice themselves for him. Kim is here to stay; to assume otherwise is foolhardy.

A regime change or coup would solve our problems. The leadership is not a monolith; there are competing views among vested groups, like the military and the Communist Party. There is also a generational divide. Most of the top leaders I saw were older than North Korea itself and, at one time, had regular contact with the outside world. They subscribe to an independent, self-reliant North, but they can also be pragmatic. By contrast, the leadership in waiting -- now in their late 40s and 50s -- came of age late in the Cold War and in isolation. For them, propaganda and ideological rants have instilled notions of a weak Western character and a world bent on the North's destruction. They agitate toward a Korean-style jihad, with a unified peninsula as sacred aspiration.

Of course it is difficult to make sweeping generalizations, but a significant number are the fanatically faithful. Therefore, if the U.S. pushes regime change too much, those coming into power could be even more thuggish toward the West.

The North has a brittle leadership susceptible to outside pressure. While China can influence the North on the margins, China probably will have little effect on North Korean behavior on core security issues. Some point to the economic leverage China holds over the North, but dependence does not always mean an ability to control behavior, considering the North Korean willingness for self-sacrifice.

North Korean negotiators say U.S. tactics are akin to making the country "pull its pants down." For them, weakness invites repeated intimidation, so a push inevitably leads to a harder push back. Given this, it would not be a surprise if Kim is now resolved all the more to avoid Saddam Hussein's embarrassing fate. In the eyes of Kim, nuclear weapons may be the only way, as the North has implied.

Sketchy intelligence is the norm with North Korea. Granted, miscalculation is a fact of life, but with Pyongyang, such miscalculation would be tragic. Substance is what matters if we are to prevent both the emergence of a nuclear weapons supermarket in the region and a catastrophic war to put it out of business. But trying to stare down dangerous strongmen will, in the case of North Korea, only harden Pyongyang's resolve.