N. Korea May Be in 'Anybody but Bush' Camp

BEIJING — North Korea has never had a real election, doesn't believe in democracy and wouldn't dream of putting the political fate of "Dear Leader" Kim Jong Il in the hands of ballot-wielding commoners. But it does have an election strategy -- as far as the U.S. is concerned.

Pyongyang, analysts say, is rooting for Sen. John F. Kerry, Sen. John Edwards, the Rev. Al Sharpton -- in fact, virtually anyone other than George W. Bush -- to be the next U.S. president. That's why many observers are expecting little progress at the six-party talks aimed at halting North Korea's nuclear program that start today in Beijing.

"North Korea is waiting for its own regime change -- in D.C.," said Pang Zhongying, professor of international relations at China's Nankai University.

In return for shutting down its weapons program, the North wants to get the most generous possible trade terms, aid and security guarantees. Pyongyang is betting that by stalling, it can achieve a better deal with a new administration, analysts say. Nor does it want to grace Bush with a diplomatic victory that might help reelect him.

"I expect North Korea to make certain compromises in the six-party talks to keep them going," said Li Dunqiu, a North Korea expert with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "But don't expect any real progress before the U.S. elections."

The lack of urgency is trying for North Korea's immediate neighbors who have been living under a cloud of uncertainty since Pyongyang moved to restart its nuclear program in late 2002. South Korea is expected to put forward a three-stage proposal that would start with North Korea pledging to dismantle its nuclear program in return for promises from the U.S. and the other parties of security and economic assistance.

But even the most optimistic diplomats believe that it will be difficult to move forward given the animus between the United States and North Korea.

Bush has been tougher on North Korea than have many of his predecessors. But analysts emphasize that North Korea's dislike of the administration is more than political. It's personal.

The president has vilified Kim as a man who banquets while others starve, and called North Korea a member of an "axis of evil." In 2002, Bush told interviewer Bob Woodward: "I loathe Kim Jong Il."

The Dear Leader reportedly is not quick to forget such things.