NORTH CONWAY, N.H. — Debbie Ayers, bundled against the bitter cold, stood beneath an awning in the heart of this ski town's business district a few days ago and listed the people still in contention for her vote in New Hampshire's Jan. 27 Democratic primary.
She liked Howard Dean, the former governor next door, because of his passion but was wary of his lack of experience. Wesley K. Clark, the retired general from Arkansas, was "interesting," but "I'm cautious about a guy who's never been elected to anything." She was intrigued by North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, whom she heard speak in a coffee shop here, but wasn't ready to commit to him either.
How about John F. Kerry, the senator from Massachusetts?
"Kerry's the old school; he's passe," Ayers, a 59-year-old art teacher, said dismissively. "He still looks like his rich roots."
New Hampshire was supposed to be his easy sale, the one he could count on, like a kid persuading a neighbor to buy school fundraiser candy. Instead, Kerry is foundering here, dropping eight points since Christmas in the American Research Group's tracking poll. He's now in third place behind a surging Clark and frontrunner Dean.
So it's no small irony that Kerry, hoping to get back in the good graces of his New Hampshire neighbors, is counting on support from Iowans who, from a distance of 1,000 miles, perceive him as a national figure rather than the politician next door.
"I think John Kerry has the strongest legislative background and the best military background," Pat Larson, a retired insurance underwriter from Bettendorf, Iowa, said Friday as she lunched with a friend while waiting for a Kerry appearance in Davenport.
"I think he can really take it to Bush. I liked his closing statement in the debate on Sunday -- 'Bring it on!' "
Another diner, Vietnam veteran and small-business owner Michael Mahler of Le Claire, was similarly drawn. "He's got leadership qualities," Mahler said. "He's got a great handle on the issues."
Kerry aides agree that the senator has to do well in Iowa at the caucuses on Jan. 19, but no one is willing to say how well. With recent polls showing Kerry gaining there, a second-place finish is possible. Some say it's critical.
"Obviously Sen. Kerry is hoping that somehow his New Hampshire candidacy can get reborn in Iowa," Geoff Garin, Clark's pollster, said this week in a conference call with reporters. "I don't think a respectable third gets him there."
