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Georgian Leader on Precarious Pedestal

President-elect Mikheil Saakashvili won 96% of the vote, and hopes for him are so high that some analysts fear they can only be crushed.

THE WORLD

January 11, 2004|David Holley, Times Staff Writer

Saakashvili strode into parliament wearing jeans and a black jacket, carrying a single long-stemmed rose instead of a gun and leading crowds that chased Shevardnadze out of the building in mid-speech. Throughout the protests, he showed "personal courage and fortitude, which is an extremely valuable asset in Georgia," Nodia said.

"Mikheil Saakashvili can be called emotional in that he really is a spitfire and an explosive man," Nodia added. "But he calms down and forgets grievances quickly, too. And he is capable of cooperating and working with people who criticized him severely in the past.... In private, he is quite a normal, amicable and civilized person who is quite ready to listen and discuss things."


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Saakashvili also benefits from the popularity of his Dutch wife, Sandra Roelofs, whom he met while studying in France before going to the United States. The two have a young son.

"She has undoubtedly been a great asset to her husband in his political struggle and campaigning," said Gogichaishvili, the TV reporter. "First of all, she is a very charismatic lady. She is very nice-looking and charming. But probably the most important thing is that despite having lived in Georgia for not very long, she has managed to get a perfect command of the Georgian language, which is a great asset.

"She speaks perfect Georgian, she knows Georgian traditions and customs, and this has won the hearts of the Georgian people."

Vakhtang Khmaladze, a member of parliament from the opposition New Rights party, said he feared that Saakashvili may be better at winning support than getting things done.

"He's very impulsive, a person whose policy is created on a populist basis more than logic and objectivity," Khmaladze said. "His strength would be that he has this charisma that allows him to get the support of the people. The main weakness will be that populism has never brought any constructive achievements."

In addition to wrestling with corruption, Saakashvili has pledged to try to bring the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia back into the Georgian fold. They have exercised de facto independence since fighting secessionist wars in the early 1990s, and no one thinks Georgian unity can easily be restored.

Rondeli said that the key to success for Saakashvili will be to build a capable team. "I don't think his personal charm and personal capabilities will be enough."

From his years in the U.S., Saakashvili "is acquainted with the Western system of values, which he shares," Rondeli said. "He believes in democracy and democratic change, and if not we'll see it very soon. If he becomes authoritarian, we'll see that he was lying to us.

"Theoretically, there is the risk -- 80% or 90% of politicians start as heroes and end as criminals or miserable people. So let's hope he's among the 10% who are successful."

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Alexei V. Kuznetsov of The Times' Moscow Bureau contributed to this report.

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