House Race Is a Mirror of the Midwest Vote

But his most reliable applause line is this: "If [U.S. Atty. Gen.] John Ashcroft's for it, then I'm usually against it. That's probably all you need to know."

Smith is one of 10 Democrats campaigning for the House seat that retiring Rep. Dick Gephardt has held for 28 years. A political science instructor at two local universities, he's young, passionate and liberal. That played well to the mostly elderly voters at a wine-and-cheese house party in this St. Louis suburb last week.

But Missouri's 3rd Congressional District -- 75 miles from end to end -- is home to a diverse array of constituents.

It's heavily Democratic. Yet under the party banner there's a mix of rural, urban and suburban voters, of social conservatives and outspoken liberals, of unswerving party loyalists and middle-of-the-road Democrats who might well be persuaded to vote Republican come the general election.

The district, in other words, mirrors the demographics of Democratic voters across Missouri -- and across other Midwestern states also considered pivotal battlegrounds in the 2004 presidential election.

So analysts are watching the House race with interest.

All the candidates pay homage to the Democratic veteran Gephardt, who has not endorsed anyone. Beyond that, the unity dissipates.

There are four conservative Democrats on the Aug. 4 primary ballot. The leading contender in that group, state Sen. Steve Stoll, opposes abortion, backs a constitutional ban on gay marriage and voted for a bitterly debated new law allowing Missourians to carry concealed guns. Liberal opponents have said derisively that he should run as a Republican. But Stoll's positions are in sync with those of many rural Democrats -- the same voters President Bush hopes to woo in this and other key states, including Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Some pundits expect these conservative voters to be the deciding force in the 3rd District. "I think Steve Stoll's going to win this one," said Dave Drebes, who publishes a local political newsletter called the Arch City Chronicle.

But few are counting the liberals out.