"If you have 50% post-Panamax ships with 20% more capacity, that's a 10% increase in the amount of goods going through the canal," said David Hunt, Panamanian-American Chamber of Commerce director, projecting the income boost that could be expected.
Expansion boosters estimate $3 billion to $5 billion will be needed for the improvements, but Hunt contended that "the only guarantee is that if they think it will cost $5 billion, it's going to be more."
The original canal cost more than three times the 1879 estimate of Ferdinand de Lesseps, the celebrated French builder of the Suez Canal whose dream of cutting a path across Panama was dashed by bankruptcy and disaster.
A nation for 100 years, and most of those under U.S. occupation, Panama, some worry, may lack the world-conquering spirit that drove Roosevelt to see the canal through to completion. Roosevelt first had to instigate Panama's secession from Colombia in 1903 to buy the rights to take on the project.
Still, this small country's vision could prove as outsized as its business management skills. In less than five years, since the canal reverted to Panamanian control on Dec. 31, 1999, the new managers have transformed it from a veritable subsidy to U.S. exporters to a profitable international service.
"Transit time in canal waters has been reduced significantly in the last several years. The accident rate is down. Toll revenue is up. Panama has been a very effective steward of the environment in the watershed," said U.S. Ambassador Linda E. Watt.
The few market studies taking a dark view toward expansion warn of the cyclical nature of shipping and the vulnerability of a small economy like Panama's to the vagaries of major exporting nations like the United States, whose cargo accounts for half of the canal's tonnage.
"This is a small country that really moves with the winds of the international economy," said Marco Fernandez, political analyst with opinion research firm Indesa, which estimates public support for expansion well over 60%. "Most people are in favor of expansion but probably because they don't know the [debt-projection] figures."
Those dedicated to safeguarding Panama's unique environment acknowledge the steamroller of support behind expansion but say they hope to convince countrymen that a balance can be struck between maritime advancement and environmental protection.
