On Iraq, 44% approve of his performance, while 55% disapprove. That's down sharply from March, when a slight majority backed him on this issue. The new poll also found that only 35% believed Bush had "offered a clear plan" to achieve success in Iraq, while 44% said he had not.
Bush scores better on his overall approval rating, partly because of his continuing strength on the terrorism issue and partly because of his virtually unanimous support from Republicans and independents who consider themselves conservative. In the new poll, 51% approved of his performance while 47% disapproved, down only slightly since March.
Over the last 50 years, presidents who have won another term have generally enjoyed approval ratings about 55% or more by this point in the election year, while those who lost had fallen below 50%. So Bush finds himself on the cusp.
Bush also is bolstered by solid leads among culturally conservative groups that have favored Republicans over the last generation: married couples, rural voters, those who attend church services regularly (especially whites) and gun owners.
But Kerry has unified Democrats, muted the traditional GOP advantage among men and opened a narrow edge among suburbanites.
Kerry also performs well among many groups that his party's nominees have traditionally relied upon: women, singles, those who attend religious services rarely or never and lower-income families.
In a three-way race, Nader has little effect on these dynamics.
With Kerry still an opaque figure for many, Bush looms as the clear fulcrum of this race. More than 80% who approve of the president's performance said they would vote for him; more than 90% who disapprove said they would pull the lever for change.
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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX) Matchup
Registered voters were polled on a two-way race:
National Bush 44% Kerry 51% Don't know 4%
Wisconsin Bush 44% Kerry 44% Don't know 11%
Ohio Bush 45% Kerry 46% Don't know 9%
Missouri Bush 48% Kerry 42% Don't know 10%
Numbers may not total 100% where some answer categories are not shown.
Source: Times Poll *
* (BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX) Matchup nationwide and in three states In a three-way contest: National Bush 42% Kerry 48% Nader 4% Don't know 5%
Ohio Bush 42% Kerry 45% Nader 4% Don't know 9%
Wisconsin Bush 44% Kerry 42% Nader 4% Don't know 10%
Missouri Bush 48% Kerry 37% Nader 5% Don't know 10%
