WASHINGTON — In three of the key states where the campaign for the White House burns the hottest, President Bush's position is stronger -- and Sen. John F. Kerry's weaker -- than in the nation overall, according to new Times polls.
Ohio and Missouri rank high among the states Democrats hope to snatch from Bush, who carried both in the 2000 election. Wisconsin is a prime target for Republicans among the states that Democrat Al Gore carried four years ago.
Since Kerry effectively clinched the Democratic presidential nomination in early March, Bush's campaign has spent more than $15 million in advertising in the three states, according to data compiled for The Times by the TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group. Kerry and groups supporting him have bombarded the states with more than $25.6 million in advertising.
The barrage has helped produce dynamics in the three states distinct in many respects from the national trends -- though potentially telling similarities remain.
In all three states, the bottom line is the same: Bush is in better shape politically than he is nationwide.
In Missouri, Bush leads Kerry by 48% to 42% in a two-way race, and by 48% to 37% in a three-way race, with independent Ralph Nader garnering 5%.
In Ohio, the two men are in a virtual dead heat: Kerry attracts 46%, Bush 45%. With Nader in the mix, Kerry's lead slightly expands: The Massachusetts senator attracts 45%, compared with 42% for Bush and 4% for Nader.
In Wisconsin, Kerry and Bush draw 44% each; in a three-way contest, Bush remains at 44%, while Kerry slips to 42% and Nader gets 4%.
Combined, the three states account for 41 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
The polls, conducted Saturday through Tuesday among registered voters, have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points in each state. This is the first in a series of Times surveys examining the most hotly contested states.
What's different in these three Midwestern battlegrounds than in the nation overall?
After months of Bush television ads questioning Kerry's views and convictions, the Democrat's image generally isn't as positive in these states as it is nationally. In a companion Times national poll, 51% of voters said they viewed Kerry favorably, while just 32% viewed him unfavorably -- a net plus for him of 19 percentage points.
