WASHINGTON — Immigrants are filling nearly three out of every 10 new jobs in the rebounding U.S. economy, a development that may dilute the political dividend to President Bush from an election-year recovery, a study to be released today concludes.
The report by the nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center found that workers who were not U.S. citizens claimed 378,496 jobs out of a net increase of 1.3 million from the first three months of 2003 through the first three months of this year.
The share of jobs going to noncitizens -- 28.5% -- was particularly notable because workers who were not U.S. citizens accounted for fewer than 9% of all those holding jobs in the United States.
"The proportion of new jobs captured by noncitizens was ... much larger than their share of overall employment," said the report, prepared by labor economist Rakesh Kochhar. "Thus, the political impact of job gains may be damped by the fact that noncitizens are benefiting disproportionately from the turnaround in the labor market."
Roberto Suro, director of the center, said in an interview that "the turnaround is being fueled to a substantial extent by the demand for immigrant labor. And as a result, a substantial chunk of the new jobs are going to people who are not voters."
The study is likely to sharpen the debate about the role of immigrant workers in America, the quality of new jobs and the impact of globalization. Most economists have tended to minimize the impact of large numbers of immigrants entering the U.S. job market, but the Pew findings may bolster those who challenge that view.
The high proportion of new jobs going to immigrants may reflect the fact that the current recovery has thus far been different from most past upturns. In recent months, as overall job growth has begun to improve, most of the new jobs appear to have come in categories that require relatively low skills and pay relatively low wages -- the kinds of jobs for which many immigrants are strong competitors.
In the past, the early stages of economic recoveries have been marked by growth in industrial jobs that pay above-average wages.
Jared Bernstein, senior economist at the liberal Economic Policy Institute think tank, said his analysis supported the idea that "the occupations that are gaining are on the low end."
He added that his own research showed that the recovery had not paid much of a dividend in terms of rising wages. "We see wage growth far less than you would expect at this stage," he said.
