Bill Clinton's emphatic return to the spotlight has created short-term opportunities for both parties but is unlikely to affect the long-term dynamics of the presidential race, Republican and Democratic strategists agree.
In the near term, Democrats hope Clinton's high-profile reemergence around the publication of his memoirs will boost John F. Kerry, the presumptive Democratic nominee, by focusing attention on the economy's strong performance during Clinton's tenure.
Many Republicans, though, are optimistic that Clinton's publicity tour will help President Bush by energizing the conservative base that detests the former president, and by reminding less partisan voters about the relationship with intern Monica S. Lewinsky that led to his impeachment.
The consensus in both parties is that Clinton's resurfacing, much like the death this month of former President Reagan, won't affect many voters' decisions as the spotlight inexorably returns to the two men vying for president.
"Come October the focus is going to be squarely on John Kerry and George W. Bush, and the Clinton book tour and the Reagan death are going to be a distant memory," said Democratic media consultant David Axelrod.
Unlike Reagan, though, Clinton promises to be a visible presence in this race until the end. Indeed, his confidantes expect that he will play a much more prominent role in 2004 than he did in 2000, when then-Vice President Al Gore mostly kept him at arm's length, partly because he feared that the Lewinsky scandal had tainted Clinton with swing voters.
Kerry seems much more eager than Gore to employ Clinton as a fundraiser and surrogate, particularly with core Democratic constituencies such as African Americans, advisors to both Kerry and Clinton say. "They are anxious to have him participate," said one Clinton confidante.
The ideas under discussion include plans for a Clinton speech at the Democratic National Convention in late July, probably on the first of its four nights.
Kerry recently told reporters that he welcomed the president's book and tour.
"I think that both are going to remind Americans about some very, very good years in terms of the economy of our country and the policy directions we took -- and even as people will also remember that the president made a terrible mistake that he acknowledges," Kerry said. "I'm very happy to have the president out there reminding people about the direction that we could go in with different leadership."
