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Clinton Effect Seen as Transitory

The former president is back in the spotlight, but experts predict little impact on the campaign.

THE RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE

June 24, 2004|Ronald Brownstein, Times Staff Writer

But conservatives appear just as eager to keep Clinton in the news, believing that he motivates their base at least as much as he excites core Democrats.

"As unifying a force as Bush has been, nothing galvanizes conservatives the way Bill and Hillary Clinton do," said conservative public relations consultant Keith Appell.


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Polls taken over the last few days mostly show the public expressing the same split verdict on Clinton that it did in the final years of his presidency. An ABC/Washington Post survey released Tuesday showed Americans divided almost exactly in half on whether they had a favorable personal view of Clinton. But 62% gave him positive ratings for his job performance as president.

As in 2000, the challenge for the Democrats may be to benefit from the positive assessments of Clinton's performance without suffering from the disenchantment with his personal behavior. The likelihood, though, is that both effects will be more diffuse this year than in the last election.

"Clinton is part of history now," Axelrod said.

Clinton never entirely receded from view after leaving office. But his exposure will increase enormously over the next few weeks amid a round of book signings and interviews to promote his memoir, "My Life."

His book tour will focus heavily on states where Kerry is already strongly favored -- such as California, New York and Illinois. But it will also carry Clinton to battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Florida and Washington, as well as Arkansas and Colorado, two Bush states from 2000 that Kerry hopes to contest.

Although the former president has spoken on several occasions with Kerry and his top aides, Clinton advisors say he has not coordinated his message during the tour with the Massachusetts senator.

Republicans have been cheered, and some Democrats privately dismayed, by the extent to which Clinton's initial appearances have concentrated on his affair with Lewinsky and his feelings about his impeachment.

"The thing that I would not have anticipated going into the book is how completely and thoroughly his legacy is dominated by impeachment and Monica Lewinsky," said one GOP operative familiar with thinking in the Bush campaign. "That event of his presidency is defining the coverage of his book and his reemergence onto the center stage of American life."

But even most Republican strategists agree that the Clinton scandals are unlikely to have any effect on voter perceptions of Kerry, who is much less closely connected to the former president.

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