Keeping It Real for the Voters

AUSTIN, Texas — Surprised though you may be to hear this, the presidential campaign is just getting started.

Yes, we know the candidates. But what are the real issues? They are not so clear.

And one reason they aren't is our national weakness for the misleading phrase, for the sexy label that somewhat, but imperfectly, covers the case. Herewith a brief guide to what is real and what is not.

* Jobs, not outsourcing. The exodus of manufacturing and software jobs is a hot-button topic. Some small things could be done about it. Adequate enforcement of privacy rights and security interests, for example, would curtail a fair amount of offshore computer programming. But generally speaking, if the Indians want call centers and the Chinese want TV factories, you can't stop them.

The challenge is to find useful work for all seeking a job here. We still need at least 5 million new jobs. We could start by supporting state and local governments with a revenue-sharing program, and their capital-spending projects with a new federal capital budget and revolving fund. We could add teachers, nurses, firefighters and police to the public payrolls. Let's have an energy and transportation program to rebuild our country for an oil-short world.

And let's look forward to the day -- instead of fearing it -- when we'll have a lot more elderly retirees. Who will take care of them? How about a corps of home healthcare assistants? You could create a lot of useful jobs that way.

* Future deficits, not those right now. Those who bemoan the lost surpluses of the late-1990s miss the point. Today's deficits are large, but they are necessary. The private sector will not borrow as it did five years ago, neither for business investment nor for household consumption. So the public sector must borrow, heavily, for the time being. To create enough jobs when we need them, deficits may have to grow for a while.

Are deficits driving up interest rates, crowding out private investment? No. Interest rates at historical lows didn't budge these last few years as both actual deficits and the forecasts got worse. Long-term rates are reacting now -- but only to the clear signal that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will soon raise short-term rates.

What about those frightening forecasts of huge deficits? They matter, mainly for a political reason. Given the deficit phobia of our political culture, the government will be unable to address national needs if it doesn't show how future deficits can be brought under control. This is why the back-loaded, top-heavy parts of President Bush's tax cuts should be repealed.