NEW ORLEANS — The St. Peter African Methodist Episcopal Church is the oldest black house of worship in New Orleans, and after 14 years at its helm, the Rev. R.L. Palmer Jr. knows every one of its 164 parishioners so well he can tell you how they vote.
Not a single member of his congregation plans to back President Bush for reelection in November, the 59-year-old minister said.
But whether they will turn out in force for presumptive Democratic nominee John F. Kerry is still a mystery.
"Kerry does not have that Clintonesque relationship with African Americans," Palmer said, referring to the especially strong bond President Clinton built with black voters. "Kerry is a work in progress. He's doing pretty well, but that's perhaps mostly because of the general dissatisfaction with the Bush administration."
Louisiana joins Florida, Texas and Mississippi in holding presidential primaries today -- all of which Kerry is virtually certain to win.
So the Massachusetts senator has used many of his campaign stops in the four states to strengthen his ties with African Americans nationally in the hope they will rally behind him in November.
His challenge lies not in securing the bulk of black votes; over the last 40 years, African Americans have been the Democratic Party's most loyal constituents, routinely 80% or more vote for the presidential nominee.
Kerry must persuade them to vote in greater numbers to tilt the race in his favor, especially in states such as Louisiana and Florida, where the general election could be close.
Historically, turnout among black voters has lagged behind that of whites by several percentage points.
Four years ago, 90% of black voters cast their ballots for Al Gore -- a greater percentage even than voted for Clinton in 1992 (83%) and 1996 (84%) -- despite an aggressive courtship by Bush.
The then-Texas governor campaigned in many black neighborhoods and showcased a parade of black leaders at his nominating convention, including Colin L. Powell and Condoleezza Rice, now senior members of his administration. He also launched a $1-million ad campaign on black radio stations and addressed major black organizations that other Republicans had shunned.
Even so, Bush's showing among blacks in November 2000 was the worst of any Republican presidential nominee since Barry Goldwater, who won just 6% of the black vote in 1964. Analysts said there is little reason to believe Bush will do much better this year.
