Census Projects an America of Greater Racial Diversity by 2050

WASHINGTON — The numbers of Latinos and Asians in the United States will triple over the next half-century as an aging white population slips from its traditional majority perch, according to U.S. Census Bureau projections released today. The estimates through 2050 show that during the current decade, the U.S. will, for the first time, reach the demographic milestone of more than 100 million minority residents. By 2010, minorities will number more than 110 million out of a total population of 309 million.

"You really see a snapshot here of the old America and the new America at the same time," said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, a centrist research and policy center in Washington. "One America will be white, middle-class and graying, and then you'll have this new kind of globalized America coming to the fore."

He called it a "racial generation gap."

The broad direction of America's demographic evolution has been roughly mapped, but the new figures are based on the most recent data, factoring in the results of the 2000 Census. The head count showed both a sharp increase and a geographic dispersal of the Latino and Asian populations.

In terms of diversity, the country in about 50 years will look more like California does now. In California, Latinos could well become the majority, although an increasing number are leaving the state in search of better economic opportunities.

Projections by the California Department of Finance indicate that Latinos will account for 48% of the state's population in 2040. Non-Latino whites, who now account for slightly less than half of Californians, will represent about 31%. The Census Bureau is developing its own state-level projections.

According to the national figures released today, the total U.S. population will rise to about 420 million in 2050, a 49% increase from 2000. As the Baby Boom generation -- those born between 1946 and 1964 -- begins to die, the population will grow much more slowly. After 2030, the rate of increase might be the slowest since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The number of Latinos -- who can be of any race -- are projected to grow to 103 million by 2050. That represents a nearly threefold increase from 36 million in 2000. The number of Asians would rise to 33 million, from 11 million in 2000.