At This Point, the Polls Toll for Bush

The other three incumbent presidents who won a new term in the second half of the 20th century -- Eisenhower, Johnson and Nixon -- never once fell behind their opponents in the election year. Nixon, for example, was ahead of McGovern in every trial-heat ballot Gallup conducted in 1972, ranging from margins of 13 points to 24 points, despite less than overwhelming job approval ratings.

In fact, it's usually the case that incumbents -- whether they end up winning or losing in their reelection bids -- start the election year doing well in trial heats. Two out of three of the incumbent presidents who went on to lose their elections were actually ahead of their eventual opponent at this point in their reelection bids. Carter was ahead of Reagan until June 1980 (they traded the lead off and on later). George H.W. Bush was ahead in every poll conducted in early 1992 until Ross Perot jumped ahead in May. (Clinton didn't move into the lead until Perot dropped out in July.) Gerald Ford was behind his eventual opponent, Carter, in early polling, although Gallup did not begin pitting Ford against the little-known former Georgia governor until March 1976.

Obviously, this is not particularly good news for Bush. But there are caveats. The sample -- eight cases -- is small, and it doesn't include the famous election of 1948, in which an incumbent president, Harry S. Truman, was behind in the polls of the time but went on to win.

Still, if Bush is reelected, he will become the only president out of the last eight incumbents to win after having been behind a challenger in Gallup polling conducted after January of his election year. And, if his job approval ratings don't rise above 50% in April and May, his reelection would mark the first of those eight to win with less than majority approval in the late spring of their election year.