WASHINGTON — This year's presidential race -- fueled by more than a million donors, including many who have never given before -- is well on its way to becoming the country's first $1-billion political campaign, experts say.
The money is coming in small donations and large ones, online and in the mail, from wealthy philanthropists and immigrants who can't even vote. In part, it represents unprecedented interest in the campaign from people throughout the country.
Together, President Bush and his presumptive challenger, Sen. John F. Kerry, have drawn money from 700,000 more individual donors than those who contributed to Bush and Democrat Al Gore in the entire 2000 campaign, according to figures provided to The Times by the three campaigns.
Already, donations to Bush, Kerry and the Democrats who had contested the Massachusetts senator for the party's nomination have exceeded more than $400 million -- more than double what was raised at this point four years ago.
By the time it's all over, when all the money spent by the political parties, state party organizations, independent groups, conventions and the candidates themselves is tallied, several campaign finance experts said the total will be up to $1 billion or more.
"The numbers are phenomenal," said Anthony Corrado, a campaign finance expert at Colby College in Maine. "Something's happening here. It's like the explosion of civic participation in fundraising."
Experts say several factors explain the 2004 money phenomenon. The contribution limit from individuals was doubled to $2,000, which naturally led to more money in the system. Both Bush and Kerry opted out of the public financing system during the primaries and caucuses, allowing them to raise as much money as possible until this summer's conventions.
Donors can now give money over the Internet more easily. And the country is politically polarized, which has motivated people to try and give their candidate an edge in a very close race.
"It's the perfect political storm for fundraising," said Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee.
That money has translated into extensive television advertising, particularly in the 17 battleground states where the presidential election is being fought most intensely. It's also paying for voter mobilization drives and hefty fees for dozens of political consultants who strategize, produce ads and conduct polls, as well as to the broadcast stations and networks selling air time.
"You're definitely talking in excess of $1 billion," said Dwight L. Morris, who analyzes campaign finance data for news organizations. "It is mind-boggling."
The thought of a $1-billion presidential campaign shouldn't bother people, said Ed Gillespie, the Republican National Committee's chairman.
"When you look at the amount of money spent to get people to vote and participate in the political system," he said, "it pales in comparison to what is spent to get people to buy toothpaste."
Not all experts agree on how the billion-dollar figure will break down, but here's one conservative scenario that would easily put the race near that mark: Bush is expected to raise and spend about $210 million and Kerry, $120 million, including funds designated for legal and accounting expenses. After the conventions, each candidate will receive $75 million in public money for the general election. The rest of the Democratic field has already spent about $160 million, including matching funds.
The RNC plans to pour at least $50 million into the presidential campaign; the DNC is confident it will spend at least that much as well. Another $100 million will be spent on the political conventions. Independent groups known as 527s say they will spend $145 million. And MoveOn.org has announced a $50-million fundraising goal for its political action committee.
That would put the total over $1 billion. And that doesn't include money spent by other PACs, state political parties and interest groups on the presidential race.
In the wake of campaign finance reform, the outpouring of so much money -- particularly from individual donors -- has turned conventional political wisdom on its head.
"Everyone's assumptions have proved wrong," said Trevor Potter, a Washington lawyer and former chairman of the Federal Election Commission.
The political parties, particularly the Democrats, were expected to be struggling for cash. The McCain-Feingold legislation approved two years ago banned them from receiving unlimited contributions -- known as soft money -- from unions, corporations and individuals. Yet, the Republican and Democratic national committees together have raised $230 million, more than what they collected at the same time in 2000 when soft money was allowed.
Many "thought this party would be wiped out with McCain-Feingold," said McAuliffe. "Contrary to public perception, we are in the strongest financial position in the history of our party."
