CARSON CITY, Nev. — Politically, it would seem that President Bush has hit the jackpot in Nevada, a state both sides covet as they claw their way toward the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.
The state's economy is robust, with close to 83,000 jobs created since Bush took office -- more than half of them in the last year. Tourism has snapped back smartly from the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, with Las Vegas casinos bustling and Reno enjoying its most prosperous winter in years.
The turmoil in Iraq has not seemed to hurt Bush's personal standing. And even supporters of Sen. John F. Kerry say the Massachusetts blue blood is not exactly the best fit for this rough-hewn state, which clings proudly to its Wild West heritage.
But for all that, Democrats regard Nevada as highly competitive, thanks to nearly dead-even voter registration and an issue that juts up like the rugged peaks rising from the brown desert floor: Yucca Mountain.
In 2002, Bush signed legislation to establish the ridge of volcanic rock and ash -- 90 miles northwest of Las Vegas -- as the final resting place for 77,000 tons of the nation's deadliest radioactive waste. Critics say that broke a promise he made late in the 2000 campaign, when he pledged that science, not politics, would guide his policy on Yucca Mountain.
The statement, crucial to Bush's victory in the state, was vague enough that many assumed he would oppose the project.
"He lied," said Jon Ralston, a nonpartisan political analyst in Las Vegas.
Not so, said Gov. Kenny Guinn, a Republican and co-chairman of Bush's Nevada campaign, even as his lawyers fight the Bush administration in court on the storage issue. "[Bush] said he would
Although some question the potency of the Yucca Mountain issue -- even Kerry backers say his opposition to the dump isn't enough to win Nevada's five electoral votes by itself -- the debate suggests something larger: In a race fought so close to the margins, it is not just the big states and big questions of war, peace and the economy that matter.
Looking to November, Bush and Kerry are each counting on a base of about 200 electoral votes. Barring huge shifts, Bush is virtually certain to win his home state of Texas, much of the Rocky Mountain West and most -- if not all -- of the South, while Kerry can anticipate carrying California, New York, Illinois and much of New England.
