MIAMI — For four years Florida has symbolized President Bush's controversial ascent to power following an election fracas replete with hanging chads, butterfly ballots and legal fights all the way to the Supreme Court.
Now this politically complex state -- a mosaic of cultures and ideologies -- is again a crucial battleground in the waning days of a presidential campaign.
Bush enjoys some clear advantages in the fight for Florida's coveted 27 electoral votes. His brother, Gov. Jeb Bush, now wields more influence than ever over the state's election system. Secretary of State Katherine Harris had been elected to that post, but her successor, thanks to a change approved by Florida voters before the 2000 election, calls the shots as an appointee of the governor.
The president is even sharing the Florida ballot with his hand-picked candidate for the Senate, former Housing Secretary Mel Martinez, a Cuban immigrant who Republicans hope will draw Latinos to Bush.
But some early signs are positive for Democratic presidential nominee Sen. John F. Kerry, as well, with thousands of activists swooping into Florida to mobilize voters angry over 2000.
About 2 million people -- nearly one-fifth of the state's registered voters -- have cast ballots early, in some cases waiting in line as long as four hours in heavily Democratic areas amid continued accusations of voter intimidation and suppression.
Four years ago, Republicans were stunned to learn from an internal poll one week before election day that Democrat Al Gore led Texas Gov. George W. Bush by 1 point in a state they once considered a safe bet.
This time, with two days to go, the polls suggest gridlock again.
"Last time a week out it was 44-45 [%] with Gore ahead," said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster whose clients include Jeb Bush. "This time there are more people decided, and it's more intense on both sides, and yet it's still a dead heat.
"At this point, you can't worry about the polls," Newhouse continued. "You have to worry about turning out voters."
Florida politics has in many ways been defined in recent years by the residual tension of the 2000 recount, with Republicans eager to prove in 2004 that Bush's win was no fluke and Democrats promising revenge for the 36-day recount battle that was settled by a divided U.S. Supreme Court. A favorite bumper sticker in left-leaning South Florida: "Redefeat Bush."
