WASHINGTON — Diplomatic efforts to prevent Iran from building an atomic bomb may fail, U.S. officials and foreign diplomats say, leaving the winner of today's presidential election with the threat of an Islamic fundamentalist, nuclear-armed regime in Tehran.
The debate over Iran will probably strain a White House that is already preoccupied with Iraq no matter who wins today's presidential election. Bush administration hard-liners are gearing up for the issue in a potential second term, studying options that include striking a deal with the Iranians, pushing for regime change and launching preemptive attacks.
"The argument will be that Iran policy is broken because ... it was predicated on the false philosophical assumption that Iran can be denied nukes," said an administration official who is familiar with the internal debate.
There is now broad agreement, inside and outside the U.S. government, that Iran will be able to develop a nuclear bomb within a few years. Tehran, for its part, insists that its nuclear program is aimed at generating civilian energy.
Administration hard-liners and their supporters argue that a nuclear Iran would be a regional danger capable of sharing the technology with terrorists. The hard-liners say Iran might use the bomb to threaten Israel or the West. "The argument will be, we need to take action ... overt and covert" to promote regime change in Tehran, the administration official said.
The government has been unable for four years to reach a consensus on policy toward Iran. Officials are split between those who oppose negotiations and those who believe America must deal with the Islamist regime.
"They have tried ... and they still do not have an Iran policy because they cannot resolve this [internal] conflict," said George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
If Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry is elected, he may back European plans to offer Iran nuclear fuel for non-weapons purposes in exchange for a commitment to drop its uranium enrichment program. If Iran refused such an offer, Kerry has said, it would undercut Tehran's claims that its nuclear agenda is peaceful.
Among military and foreign policy experts in Washington, discussion of preemptive U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities is already widespread.
