WASHINGTON — President Bush increased his support among Latino voters in Tuesday's election, helping to dash Democratic hopes of victory while increasing the potential political leverage of the rapidly growing constituency.
Although Democrat John F. Kerry got 54% of the Latino vote nationally, Bush's 45% share represented a gain of 7 percentage points from the 2000 election, according to Los Angeles Times exit polls. That was a strategic victory for Bush's chief political advisor, Karl Rove, who had made lifting the president's showing among Latinos a key to the president's reelection.
And, although Democrats had hoped to make Latinos a dependable bloc in their base, the returns suggest that either party can win Latino support if it offers candidates and messages that resonate.
"The fact that the Hispanic electorate continues to be volatile makes it one of the most important swing votes in America," said Miami pollster Sergio Bendixen, who has conducted surveys for Democrats.
For example, a surge in voting by Latinos helped elect two U.S. senators -- a Colorado Democrat and a Florida Republican. That means the Senate will have two Hispanic members for the first time.
But several analysts said it was unclear what policies Bush would pursue on immigration and other matters considered important to Latinos.
"I don't see a fundamental change in the national or legislative politics of immigration as a result of the outcome," said Rick Swartz, a longtime Washington political consultant on immigration policy. "There remains significant opposition in the Republican Party to the president's own [immigration reform] plan."
Bush's share of the Latino vote represents the best performance by a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years, since President Reagan won the support of 46% of Latinos in his 1984 reelection campaign. At that time, the pool of Latino voters was much smaller.
Bush's gains came despite polls that showed strong majorities of Latinos opposed the war in Iraq.
In California, which went solidly for Kerry, there was still a pronounced improvement for Bush. He received 31% of the Latino vote in the state, compared to 23% four years ago. That 8 percentage-point bump compared to a gain of 2 percentage points for Bush among all California voters.
Republicans have often talked of engineering a national political realignment that would solidify their control of the White House and Congress. Such scenarios usually include wooing a significant share of the Latino electorate, though not necessarily a majority.
